North Carolina @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

8-3 · Power #34

final

Final

NC State

8-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -2.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 29–27 NCSU

✗ UNC (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 43% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 2.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 39–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.4 against an average line of 2.6; 60.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–28	P	O55.25
Very close	WAKE @ NCST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–30	L	U54
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	LSU @ MSST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	28–25	W	U55
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	28–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLWLL	6-5	55%	1-2	6-4
NCSU LWWWW	6-5	55%	4-2	4-2

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC POUOU	5-4-1	56%	8-3
NCSU UUUUO	2-7	22%	8-3

Went over in Q3. Of 148 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-3-1 63%
NCSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+0.1 →+9.0▲ 8.9#23

NCSU+5.0 →+4.0▼ 1.0#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UNC

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#18

Offense

◀ UNC better

#97

#79

Defense

NCSU better ▶

#26

+0.9 #8

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

+0.6 #23

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ UNC faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #11	20.2 #27	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #12	5.22 #38	UNC
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	46% #28	37% #21	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #79	26.0 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #109	5.40 #59	UNC
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.14 #89	Even
Success rate	39% #107	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.5 #35	11.8 #13	19.4 #14	10.2 #5	6.4 #80	16.5 #25
NCSU allowed	3.1 #14	5.3 #23	8.4 #12	5.5 #62	6.3 #63	11.8 #59

NCSU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.4 #83	9.0 #51	14.4 #69	7.3 #52	4.1 #128	11.4 #92
UNC allowed	3.2 #17	9.6 #105	12.8 #65	4.4 #37	7.4 #92	11.7 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.