Kentucky @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff42°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

6-5 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

10-1 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

LOU -7.5

✓ UK W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 22–30 LOU

✗ LOU (73%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -7.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -7.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 7.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 7.3; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	42–6	W	P48
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–31	L	O44
Very close	TENN vs UK 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	7–34	L	U45.5
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.75	34–43	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LLWLL	5-6	45%	2-2	0-4
LOU LWWLW	6-5	55%	5-1	4-5

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOUOU	6-4	60%	6-5
LOU OUUOO	5-4	56%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 151 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
LOU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+6.1 →+2.7▼ 3.4#48

LOU+2.1 →+11.8▲ 9.7#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

LOU

#69

Offense

LOU better ▶

#19

#60

Defense

LOU better ▶

#21

0.0 #66

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.5 #27

56 plays #134

Pace

LOU faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	UK off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #66	18.4 #19	LOU
Yards / play	6.05 #49	5.20 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	−0.03 #12	LOU
Success rate	40% #86	36% #17	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #29	24.3 #57	LOU
Yards / play	6.70 #15	5.28 #46	LOU
PPA / play	+0.25 #20	+0.09 #60	LOU
Success rate	50% #10	42% #76	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UK scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.8 #49	8.1 #62	14.9 #59	7.8 #30	5.0 #107	12.8 #69
LOU allowed	1.9 #5	6.9 #54	8.8 #23	6.5 #90	3.0 #4	9.5 #28

LOU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.2 #24	9.7 #40	17.9 #24	7.3 #46	8.0 #36	15.3 #34
UK allowed	6.3 #87	7.0 #57	13.3 #74	4.2 #34	6.8 #79	11.0 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.