Louisville @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisville

9-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Miami

6-4 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ LOU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 25–25 MIA

✓ LOU (50%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLWWL	5-5	50%	0-2	—
MIA LWLLW	5-5	50%	3-3	—

Venue/role: LOU away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU –OUUO	4-4	50%	9-1
MIA OOOUU	5-3	63%	6-4

Went over in Q3. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-4 50%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+11.3▲ 9.2#19

MIA+11.1 →+8.8▼ 2.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LOU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#20

Offense

◀ LOU better

#48

#16

Defense

◀ LOU better

#30

+0.6 #26

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.5 #110

65 plays #82

Pace

MIA faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #32	20.7 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.71 #16	4.99 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.05 #43	LOU
Success rate	50% #10	36% #16	Even

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	MIA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #44	17.1 #13	LOU
Yards / play	6.36 #33	4.95 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	−0.06 #9	LOU
Success rate	43% #58	36% #17	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.6 #34	10.1 #33	17.7 #29	7.7 #34	7.3 #55	15.0 #37
MIA allowed	3.8 #29	4.0 #9	7.8 #9	7.4 #110	4.9 #33	12.3 #72

MIA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.8 #86	9.3 #45	14.1 #69	6.3 #62	8.8 #23	15.1 #36
LOU allowed	0.7 #1	6.9 #57	7.6 #7	6.5 #86	3.0 #2	9.5 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.