NC State @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

NC State

7-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

5-5 · Power #41

final

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 21–24 VT

✗ VT (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 2.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 35–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 41, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 2.8; 45.1 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	17–21	L	U40
Very close	NEB vs IOWA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.25	21–28	L	O41
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	WVU vs TCU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–6	W	U44.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–21	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WLWWW	5-5	50%	1-3	3-2
VT WWWLW	6-4	60%	4-1	4-0

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU –UUUU	1-7	13%	7-3
VT –UOUO	5-4	56%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 58 earlier overs in games with totals 37–45, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-7 13%
VT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.0 →+3.5▼ 1.5#43

VT+3.6 →+2.8▼ 0.8#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NCSU

Longer bar = better

#105

Offense

VT better ▶

#74

#22

Defense

◀ NCSU better

#46

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

0.0 #76

65 plays #97

Pace

VT faster ▶

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	NCSU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #85	23.9 #53	VT
Yards / play	5.01 #115	5.32 #48	VT
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.09 #59	VT
Success rate	38% #113	37% #25	VT

When VT has the ball

Advantage: NCSU defense

	VT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #75	19.4 #24	NCSU
Yards / play	5.58 #77	5.05 #30	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	−0.02 #14	NCSU
Success rate	42% #67	37% #21	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.9 #72	7.8 #70	13.7 #74	6.6 #59	4.5 #118	11.1 #101
VT allowed	5.7 #76	7.1 #62	12.8 #67	6.6 #93	4.5 #22	11.1 #52

VT scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.9 #110	11.9 #14	15.8 #47	5.7 #77	4.5 #118	10.2 #108
NCSU allowed	3.4 #21	5.1 #21	8.5 #17	5.4 #57	5.5 #46	10.9 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.