Duke @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Duke

6-4 · Power #37

final

Final

Virginia

2-8 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -3

✓ UVA W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 26–21 UVA

✗ DUKE (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 46, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 3.4; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–27	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WLLLW	5-5	50%	2-2	3-2
UVA WWWLW	7-3	70%	3-1	6-2

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UOUOO	5-3-1	63%	6-4
UVA UPOOO	6-2-2	75%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 122 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-3-1 63%
UVA	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	6-2-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DUKE 34–40 UVA UVA leads · 74 games since 1890 · DUKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.1 →+6.9▲ 2.8#31

UVA−11.2 →−3.7▲ 7.5#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DUKE

Longer bar = better

UVA

#63

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#94

#49

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#109

+0.3 #47

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.7 #125

60 plays #127

Pace

UVA faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #69	32.3 #117	DUKE
Yards / play	5.77 #64	5.86 #93	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.18 #109	DUKE
Success rate	43% #59	45% #115	DUKE

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	UVA off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #97	18.8 #23	DUKE
Yards / play	5.25 #97	5.09 #33	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.04 #39	DUKE
Success rate	41% #82	44% #100	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.1 #103	9.5 #41	13.6 #75	6.3 #65	6.8 #67	13.1 #65
UVA allowed	5.4 #72	9.0 #96	14.4 #93	8.0 #118	9.3 #115	17.3 #128

UVA scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	5.9 #72	5.4 #117	11.3 #96	7.5 #40	4.1 #127	11.6 #86
DUKE allowed	5.5 #75	4.3 #12	9.8 #28	1.9 #5	6.0 #56	7.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.