Texas A&M @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

7-4 · Power #17

final

Final

LSU

8-3 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -13

✓ TA&M W

Total

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 27–39 LSU

✓ LSU (80%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -13

Total67

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67

Line context

Home favorites of 11–15 since 2023: won 86%, covered 49% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -13

Total67

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 13-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 42–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 67, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 12.5; 67 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Close	ORE vs WASH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-12	34–37	L	U74
Close	LSU vs FLA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-16	52–35	W	O68
Close	UNC vs WAKE 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	59–53	L	O70.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	OKST vs TTU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	41–31	L	O65.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	44–6	W	U62.5
Close	TEX vs BAY 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	27–16	P	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LLPWL	5-5-1	50%	0-2-1	0-2-1
LSU WWLWW	7-4	64%	5-1	7-3

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UUOOU	5-5	50%	7-4
LSU OOOOU	8-1	89%	8-3

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 63–71, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	4-5 44%
LSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-1 89%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TA&M 24–37 LSU (3 tied) LSU leads · 64 games since 1906 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+10.3 →+13.4▲ 3.1#14

LSU−6.4 →+18.2▲ 24.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TA&M

Longer bar = better

LSU

#43

Offense

LSU better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#112

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.5 #31

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #21	27.5 #87	TA&M
Yards / play	5.97 #52	6.17 #114	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	+0.26 #131	TA&M
Success rate	44% #51	46% #117	TA&M

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #1	19.5 #26	LSU
Yards / play	8.60 #1	4.81 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #1	0.00 #20	Even
Success rate	57% #2	34% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	6.7 #52	12.8 #8	19.5 #14	7.6 #38	7.4 #54	15.0 #36
LSU allowed	7.6 #110	6.5 #44	14.2 #88	4.9 #47	8.5 #106	13.4 #87

LSU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.5 #12	15.0 #1	24.5 #4	11.0 #3	11.4 #2	22.4 #1
TA&M allowed	4.4 #38	4.8 #17	9.2 #24	5.3 #60	5.0 #33	10.3 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.