California vs Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 9:15 PM ESTRadiance Technologies Independence Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

California

6-6 · Power #57

final

Final

Texas Tech

6-6 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -3.5

✓ TTU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 27–30 TTU

✓ TTU (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 3.7; 46.2 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Very close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Very close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–21	L	U50.5
Very close	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Very close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Very close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Very close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CAL WLWWW	6-6	50%	—	4-4
TTU LWWLL	5-7	42%	—	3-5

Venue/role: CAL neutral, as underdog; TTU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OOOUU	5-5	50%	6-6
TTU UOUUO	4-6	40%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
TTU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+2.0▼ 13.6#53

TTU+2.7 →+3.1▲ 0.4#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CAL

Longer bar = better

TTU

#71

Offense

Even

#76

#101

Defense

TTU better ▶

#65

+0.1 #57

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−0.7 #126

72 plays #18

Pace

Even

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #39	27.0 #76	CAL
Yards / play	5.48 #82	5.51 #60	TTU
PPA / play	+0.09 #80	+0.10 #69	Even
Success rate	41% #82	41% #54	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #71	32.7 #115	TTU
Yards / play	5.38 #87	5.81 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #87	+0.14 #87	Even
Success rate	42% #58	45% #118	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.3 #36	9.8 #41	17.2 #31	7.2 #53	7.3 #54	14.4 #44
TTU allowed	7.6 #109	5.8 #30	13.3 #73	5.2 #51	7.3 #88	12.4 #65

TTU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.8 #29	7.3 #77	15.1 #57	5.3 #88	5.4 #102	10.7 #102
CAL allowed	8.0 #116	10.2 #113	18.2 #119	5.7 #61	8.8 #113	14.5 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.