Louisville vs USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (DirecTV Holiday Bowl, 2023)

Wed, Dec 27, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTDirecTV Holiday Bowl · Neutral site

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Louisville

10-3 · Power #21

final

Final

USC

7-5 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -5

✓ USC W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 35–30 USC

✗ LOU (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 5-point neutral-site favorite against USC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 42–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 58, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 5.8; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs ORE 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	34–17	W	U57.5
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Close	ARMY vs MIZ 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-7	24–22	L	U54
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.25	39–10	W	U64
Close	IU vs MISS 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	20–26	L	U66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LOU WLWLL	6-7	46%	0-3	4-6
USC LLLWL	3-9	25%	—	1-2

Venue/role: LOU neutral, as favorite; USC neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU UOOOU	6-5	55%	10-3
USC OOOUU	7-3	70%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 131 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
USC	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+11.2▲ 9.1#21

USC+9.1 →+8.6▼ 0.5#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LOU

Longer bar = better

USC

#35

Offense

USC better ▶

#19

Defense

◀ LOU better

#118

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.2 #89

67 plays #65

Pace

◀ LOU faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #45	34.9 #126	LOU
Yards / play	6.26 #34	6.17 #116	LOU
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.23 #124	LOU
Success rate	48% #15	45% #107	LOU

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #4	19.7 #22	Even
Yards / play	7.29 #3	5.10 #29	USC
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	−0.03 #11	Even
Success rate	48% #17	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.5 #35	8.5 #57	15.9 #47	7.5 #42	7.5 #47	15.0 #35
USC allowed	7.8 #110	9.3 #101	17.1 #114	7.6 #112	9.2 #117	16.8 #124

USC scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	11.0 #5	10.9 #20	21.9 #8	7.8 #30	10.8 #4	18.7 #5
LOU allowed	1.6 #2	6.6 #43	8.2 #10	7.2 #101	4.3 #12	11.5 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.