South Florida vs Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl, 2023)

Thu, Dec 21, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTRoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff68°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

6-6 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

6-6 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

SYR -3

✓ USF W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 27–31 SYR

✗ SYR (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSYR -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against USF, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USF won 45–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 3.7; 52.7 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Very close	WYO vs KENT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–38	W	O60.5
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–21	L	U50.5
Close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	21–24	L	U56
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USF WWLLW	6-6	50%	—	5-2
SYR LLWLW	5-6-1	45%	1-0	4-0-1

Venue/role: USF neutral, as underdog; SYR neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UOUOO	7-4	64%	6-6
SYR OUOOO	5-6	45%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
SYR	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−8.7▼ 5.6#106

SYR+6.3 →−1.2▼ 7.5#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

USF

Longer bar = better

SYR

#80

Offense

Even

#82

#101

Defense

SYR better ▶

#57

0.0 #72

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #59

79 plays #1

Pace

◀ USF faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	USF off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #46	23.8 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #68	5.34 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.07 #42	SYR
Success rate	39% #108	43% #79	SYR

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #82	34.9 #126	SYR
Yards / play	5.52 #81	6.34 #122	SYR
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	+0.18 #106	SYR
Success rate	41% #90	41% #51	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.3 #20	8.4 #57	16.8 #35	7.5 #44	6.6 #76	14.1 #48
SYR allowed	6.5 #91	7.6 #67	14.1 #82	3.8 #20	5.8 #49	9.7 #26

SYR scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.5 #50	6.0 #100	12.5 #87	7.7 #35	5.3 #102	13.0 #64
USF allowed	8.2 #118	10.0 #112	18.2 #119	8.3 #119	8.4 #106	16.8 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.