Texas State vs Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, 2023)

Tue, Dec 26, 2023, 5:30 PM ESTSERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

7-5 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Rice

6-6 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

TXST -3.5

✓ TXST W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–29 RICE

✓ TXST (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -3.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -3.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 59.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 3.4; 46.9 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs SJSU 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–30	L	U61.5
Very close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Very close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Very close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Very close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Close	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	21–24	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TXST LWLLW	6-6	50%	—	3-4
RICE WWLWP	8-3-1	73%	—	5-1

Venue/role: TXST neutral, as favorite; RICE neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UOUOO	5-6	45%	7-5
RICE OOUUU	5-6	45%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
RICE	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TXST 4–2 RICE TXST leads · 6 games since 1920 · TXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+3.4 →−3.2▼ 6.6#78

RICE−10.1 →−3.7▲ 6.4#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TXST

Longer bar = better

RICE

#21

Offense

◀ TXST better

#44

#87

Defense

RICE better ▶

#64

−0.7 #125

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #123

74 plays #10

Pace

◀ TXST faster

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #17	26.7 #70	TXST
Yards / play	6.38 #30	5.61 #68	TXST
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.07 #48	TXST
Success rate	48% #15	42% #68	TXST

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: RICE offense

	RICE off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #48	33.8 #122	RICE
Yards / play	5.94 #51	5.86 #90	RICE
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	+0.11 #74	RICE
Success rate	45% #43	41% #60	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	11.2 #4	10.8 #20	22.0 #7	5.8 #77	8.3 #31	14.0 #48
RICE allowed	3.9 #24	8.6 #91	12.5 #57	6.7 #95	6.4 #65	13.1 #81

RICE scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	10.1 #8	5.8 #109	15.8 #49	7.3 #47	5.8 #90	13.2 #61
TXST allowed	6.1 #87	9.0 #96	15.1 #94	8.1 #118	10.7 #132	18.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.