SMU vs Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Wasabi Fenway Bowl, 2023)

Thu, Dec 28, 2023, 11:00 AM ESTWasabi Fenway Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff44°F15 mphgusts 26Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

SMU

11-2 · Power #22

final

Final

Boston College

6-6 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -13.5

✓ BC W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 33–19 BC

✗ SMU (84%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -13.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -13.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite against BC, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 23–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 12.9; 52.6 points a game (usually 56). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-13	31–24	L	O54.5
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Close	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Close	UL vs UTSA 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-14	31–24	L	O54.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14	43–20	W	O50
Close	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	PUR vs NU 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-11	32–14	W	U47.5
Loose	WYO vs UNM 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-16	16–17	L	U51
Loose	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SMU LWLWW	8-5	62%	—	7-3
BC LWLLL	4-8	33%	—	3-4

Venue/role: SMU neutral, as favorite; BC neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OUOOU	6-6	50%	11-2
BC UUOUO	7-3-1	70%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 56% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-3-1 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+11.9▲ 1.2#19

BC−0.4 →−3.2▼ 2.8#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

SMU

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

◀ SMU better

#73

Defense

◀ SMU better

#110

+0.2 #42

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.2 #90

72 plays #15

Pace

◀ SMU faster

71 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #6	29.5 #99	SMU
Yards / play	6.44 #26	6.55 #126	SMU
PPA / play	+0.24 #19	+0.22 #123	SMU
Success rate	45% #44	44% #93	SMU

When BC has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	BC off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #82	17.4 #12	SMU
Yards / play	5.40 #84	4.49 #8	SMU
PPA / play	+0.14 #57	−0.05 #9	SMU
Success rate	42% #70	35% #8	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	13.4 #1	10.8 #21	24.2 #3	8.4 #19	8.1 #34	16.5 #24
BC allowed	5.4 #69	11.0 #125	16.4 #108	7.5 #111	5.1 #31	12.6 #68

BC scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.8 #92	6.0 #102	10.8 #103	6.1 #69	7.9 #39	14.0 #49
SMU allowed	4.2 #30	4.5 #10	8.7 #14	3.7 #18	5.0 #26	8.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.