Eastern Michigan @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (68 Ventures Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EST68 Ventures Bowl · at South Alabama

Weather at kickoff61°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

6-6 · Power #126

final

Final

South Alabama

6-6 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -17.5

✓ USA W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 27–18 USA

✗ EMU (75%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -17.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLLPW	6-5-1	55%	4-2	2-2-1
USA LLLWL	4-8	33%	2-4	1-3

Venue/role: EMU away, as favorite; USA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UOOOU	6-5	55%	6-6
USA UUUUO	4-6	40%	6-6

Went over in Q3. Of 85 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%
USA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−14.5▼ 11.4#126

USA−6.2 →+3.2▲ 9.4#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

EMU

Longer bar = better

USA

#122

Offense

USA better ▶

#45

#59

Defense

USA better ▶

#39

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

0.0 #72

60 plays #128

Pace

USA faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	EMU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #116	21.9 #37	USA
Yards / play	4.53 #131	5.22 #40	USA
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.08 #50	USA
Success rate	37% #121	38% #27	USA

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #45	24.0 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #40	5.55 #66	USA
PPA / play	+0.21 #31	+0.08 #54	USA
Success rate	42% #65	42% #61	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.2 #107	7.9 #66	12.1 #89	3.5 #116	3.7 #130	7.2 #130
USA allowed	4.3 #31	7.4 #65	11.7 #41	3.6 #13	6.7 #72	10.3 #31

USA scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.7 #47	8.5 #56	15.2 #58	7.2 #50	8.6 #20	15.8 #33
EMU allowed	4.9 #53	6.8 #46	11.7 #41	5.8 #64	5.8 #45	11.5 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.