Toledo @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff29°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

10-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Central Michigan

5-6 · Power #122

final

Closing spread

TOL -10

✓ TOL W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 32–22 CMU

✓ TOL (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -10

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -10

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 10-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 32–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 55, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 9.8; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	TOL @ OHIO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	35–23	W	O57.5
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LWWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	4-6
CMU LLWLL	3-8	27%	1-3	3-3

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UUUOO	5-4	56%	10-1
CMU UUOOO	7-2	78%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 29. 50% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
CMU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+2.6▲ 1.9#49

CMU−7.2 →−12.1▼ 4.9#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TOL

Longer bar = better

CMU

#20

Offense

◀ TOL better

#90

#27

Defense

◀ TOL better

#120

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−0.5 #119

66 plays #80

Pace

Even

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #20	31.0 #110	TOL
Yards / play	6.65 #17	6.37 #122	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #23	+0.26 #130	TOL
Success rate	48% #21	46% #119	TOL

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	CMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #91	20.7 #37	TOL
Yards / play	5.30 #93	4.89 #22	TOL
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	−0.01 #16	TOL
Success rate	40% #92	39% #34	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.8 #11	9.0 #50	18.8 #18	8.9 #12	7.8 #36	16.7 #18
CMU allowed	7.5 #107	6.5 #43	13.9 #81	8.1 #118	9.0 #113	17.1 #124

CMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	2.8 #124	8.7 #54	11.5 #95	7.6 #36	4.5 #117	12.2 #77
TOL allowed	4.5 #40	6.1 #34	10.5 #32	5.4 #59	4.8 #28	10.2 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.