New Mexico State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-1 · Power #84

final

Final

Liberty

1-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -9

✓ LIB W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 21–31 LIB

✓ LIB (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -9

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -9

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 9-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 33–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 9.7; 68.2 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	41–14	W	O53
Very close	UL vs EMU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	49–21	W	O56
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	21–45	L	O59
Very close	AFA vs USU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	45–49	L	O54
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	SYR vs UVA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	22–20	L	U53.75
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LW	1-1	50%	—	—
LIB L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OO	2-0	100%	1-1
LIB –	0-0	—	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
LIBlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NMSU 2–7 LIB LIB leads · 9 games since 2018 · LIB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NMSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#23

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#86

#92

Defense

LIB better ▶

#56

−1.5 #116

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+4.0 #2

65 plays #82

Pace

LIB faster ▶

69 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #27	24.0 #82	NMSU
Yards / play	8.68 #8	5.29 #80	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.36 #34	−0.25 #13	LIB
Success rate	56% #23	34% #48	NMSU

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #61	31.0 #97	LIB
Yards / play	5.64 #76	5.87 #94	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #117	+0.28 #113	Even
Success rate	39% #91	37% #64	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.