BYU @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

BYU

5-6 · Power #86

final

Final

Oklahoma State

8-3 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

OKST -16.5

✓ BYU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 18–33 OKST

✓ OKST (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -16.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 46% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -16.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 16.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 40–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 15.8; 52.6 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	PSU vs ILL 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	56–21	W	O53.5
Very close	UCLA vs COLO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-18	44–20	W	O57.25
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Very close	PUR vs IU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	44–7	W	O50.5
Very close	SC vs VAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	47–6	W	U53.5
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WLLLW	4-7	36%	1-4	3-5
OKST WWWLW	7-4	64%	4-2	3-3

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UUUOU	6-4	60%	5-6
OKST OOUUO	5-5	50%	8-3

Went over in OT. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
OKST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →−4.9▼ 8.2#90

OKST−1.5 →+4.4▲ 5.9#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BYU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#119

Offense

OKST better ▶

#61

#100

Defense

OKST better ▶

#80

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.3 #44

62 plays #112

Pace

OKST faster ▶

72 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: OKST defense

	BYU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #105	26.7 #74	OKST
Yards / play	4.93 #119	6.43 #126	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.11 #79	OKST
Success rate	37% #127	39% #40	OKST

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #54	28.9 #99	OKST
Yards / play	5.89 #59	5.94 #98	OKST
PPA / play	+0.13 #67	+0.17 #103	OKST
Success rate	42% #63	44% #100	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.3 #57	6.9 #86	13.2 #78	5.1 #92	3.8 #129	8.9 #121
OKST allowed	6.6 #95	9.3 #104	15.9 #104	5.2 #56	5.6 #45	10.8 #42

OKST scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.2 #62	6.8 #88	13.0 #82	5.8 #74	10.5 #4	16.3 #28
BYU allowed	8.8 #126	8.0 #79	16.8 #113	7.2 #104	4.9 #31	12.1 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.