Texas vs Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl, 2023)

Mon, Jan 1, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTCFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas

12-1 · Power #8

final

Final

Washington

13-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -3.5

✓ WASH W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 32–28 WASH

✗ TEX (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -3.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -3.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against WASH, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 37–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 3.8; 62.9 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Very close	TEX vs WASH 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–27	L	U67
Very close	ISU vs ORE 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–17	W	U57.5
Very close	OU vs ISU 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.5	27–21	W	U59.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	OU vs TEX 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	55–48	W	O65.5
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	OSU vs UTAH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-4	48–45	L	O64.5
Close	CLEM vs TENN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4	14–31	L	U61.5
Close	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7	47–32	W	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TEX PLWWW	7-5-1	58%	1-1	6-5-1
WASH WLWLW	6-6-1	50%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: TEX neutral, as favorite; WASH neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX OUUOO	4-8	33%	12-1
WASH OOUUP	5-6-1	45%	13-0

Went over in Q4. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	9-1 90%	6-3-1 67%	3-6 33%
WASH	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+8.6 →+18.8▲ 10.2#6

WASH+9.9 →+15.0▲ 5.1#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TEX

Longer bar = better

WASH

#26

Offense

WASH better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ TEX better

#70

+0.5 #22

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

+0.1 #67

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ TEX faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #14	23.6 #51	TEX
Yards / play	6.65 #14	5.55 #65	TEX
PPA / play	+0.20 #33	+0.09 #62	TEX
Success rate	45% #42	44% #101	TEX

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #10	17.5 #11	Even
Yards / play	7.23 #5	5.04 #26	WASH
PPA / play	+0.32 #6	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	53% #4	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.7 #17	10.5 #23	19.2 #13	7.7 #34	9.1 #19	16.8 #17
WASH allowed	4.5 #38	8.2 #81	12.7 #62	5.9 #74	5.0 #27	10.9 #41

WASH scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	10.0 #9	14.0 #4	24.0 #3	6.2 #67	7.5 #42	13.7 #53
TEX allowed	3.3 #12	4.6 #13	7.9 #8	3.8 #18	5.8 #45	9.6 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.