Washington vs Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP National Championship Pres. by AT&T, 2023)

Mon, Jan 8, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTCFP National Championship Pres. by AT&T · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington

14-0 · Power #13

final

Final

Michigan

14-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -5.5

✓ MICH W

Total

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 26–32 MICH

✓ MICH (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -5.5

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -5.5

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against WASH, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MICH won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 56, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 5.2; 60.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	OU vs ISU 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	27–21	W	U59.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Close	ISU vs ORE 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	34–17	W	U57.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–44	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WASH LWLWW	7-6-1	54%	2-0	3-0
MICH WLWWW	8-5-1	62%	2-0	8-5-1

Venue/role: WASH neutral, as underdog; MICH neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OUUPO	6-6-1	50%	14-0
MICH UOOUO	7-6	54%	14-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%
MICH	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+15.0▲ 5.1#13

MICH+8.4 →+22.3▲ 13.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

WASH

Longer bar = better

MICH

Offense

Even

#20

#75

Defense

MICH better ▶

+0.1 #58

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.2 #3

65 plays #80

Pace

◀ WASH faster

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #10	10.2 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.25 #5	4.29 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #7	−0.12 #1	Even
Success rate	53% #4	33% #1	Even

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #14	24.1 #56	MICH
Yards / play	6.11 #47	5.66 #69	MICH
PPA / play	+0.31 #8	+0.10 #67	MICH
Success rate	49% #10	45% #106	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	9.8 #11	14.0 #4	23.8 #3	6.4 #65	7.4 #45	13.9 #50
MICH allowed	2.4 #7	3.0 #3	5.4 #2	1.5 #3	3.4 #2	4.9 #1

MICH scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.8 #14	10.3 #27	19.1 #14	10.2 #4	6.2 #86	16.4 #19
WASH allowed	4.6 #43	8.6 #89	13.3 #71	5.5 #58	5.4 #37	10.9 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.