Missouri vs Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, 2023)

Fri, Dec 29, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTGoodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Neutral site

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Missouri

10-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Ohio State

11-1 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

OSU -4

✓ MIZ W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 24–28 OSU

✗ OSU (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 14–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 5.1; 50.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	ISU vs ORE 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–17	W	U57.5
Close	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	16–21	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIZ WWWLW	8-4	67%	1-0	4-1
OSU LPWWL	6-4-2	60%	—	6-3-2

Venue/role: MIZ neutral, as underdog; OSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUUOO	7-4	64%	10-2
OSU UOUUO	3-8	27%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 48 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-3 67%
OSU	9-1 90%	6-2-2 75%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+0.4 →+13.4▲ 13.0#14

OSU+8.6 →+21.3▲ 12.7#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

MIZ

Longer bar = better

OSU

#19

Offense

Even

#18

#44

Defense

OSU better ▶

+0.8 #10

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

−0.1 #82

66 plays #73

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #24	11.0 #2	OSU
Yards / play	6.70 #13	4.13 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	47% #24	36% #10	Even

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #31	22.3 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #17	5.41 #55	OSU
PPA / play	+0.31 #9	+0.09 #65	OSU
Success rate	48% #13	38% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.2 #39	10.4 #27	17.6 #27	6.1 #69	10.4 #5	16.5 #22
OSU allowed	2.3 #8	3.2 #3	5.4 #2	2.6 #7	3.0 #3	5.6 #3

OSU scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.5 #51	10.0 #34	16.5 #37	8.6 #15	7.8 #42	16.3 #24
MIZ allowed	4.6 #41	3.7 #7	8.3 #9	5.9 #72	8.2 #101	14.1 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.