Iowa State vs Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 2023)

Fri, Dec 29, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTAutoZone Liberty Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff41°F11 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

7-5 · Power #35

final

Final

Memphis

9-3 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -10

Push

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 22–29 MEM

✓ MEM (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -10

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -10

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 10-point neutral-site favorite against ISU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 36–26; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 58, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 7.9; 56.3 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs PITT 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	35–37	L	O54.5
Close	WMU vs NEV 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total	-6.5	52–24	W	O57
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	TENN vs PUR 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	45–48	L	O66.5
Close	UNC vs SC 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	21–38	L	O57.5
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Loose	MEM vs FAU 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-9	25–10	W	U52.75
Loose	BSU vs SJSU 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & season form	-6.5	20–34	L	U58.5
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	SJSU vs BALL 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-9	13–34	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ISU WLWLW	7-5	58%	—	3-3
MEM LLLWW	4-7-1	36%	0-1	3-5-1

Venue/role: ISU neutral, as underdog; MEM neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU OUOUO	5-6	45%	7-5
MEM OOOOO	10-2	83%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 133 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%
MEM	7-3 70%	3-6-1 33%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →+6.1▲ 10.9#35

MEM+6.5 →+2.3▼ 4.2#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ISU

Longer bar = better

MEM

#75

Offense

MEM better ▶

#20

#31

Defense

◀ ISU better

#90

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #30

59 plays #132

Pace

MEM faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #74	29.0 #97	ISU
Yards / play	6.11 #45	6.19 #117	ISU
PPA / play	+0.14 #59	+0.07 #46	Even
Success rate	37% #123	44% #101	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #6	21.7 #35	MEM
Yards / play	6.43 #25	5.00 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #26	+0.05 #32	Even
Success rate	47% #23	39% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.3 #60	7.2 #79	13.4 #74	7.2 #48	5.7 #98	12.8 #69
MEM allowed	6.6 #93	7.1 #56	13.7 #77	6.3 #81	9.1 #117	15.3 #108

MEM scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	8.6 #20	11.9 #10	20.5 #10	8.8 #14	9.9 #11	18.7 #5
ISU allowed	4.8 #48	6.9 #50	11.8 #45	5.2 #52	4.8 #22	9.9 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.