SMU @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

SMU

8-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Memphis

8-2 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

SMU -9.5

✓ MEM W

Total

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 34–25 MEM

✓ SMU (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -9.5

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close64

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 55% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -9.5

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 9.5-point road favorite at MEM, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SMU won 38–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 64, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 8.8; 56.4 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	31–21	P	U59
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	50–36	W	O67
Close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Close	VT @ WAKE 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	16–23	L	U68.5
Close	ND @ UVA 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-8	28–3	W	U62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WWWLW	6-4	60%	2-3	6-2
MEM LWLLL	2-7-1	22%	0-4-1	0-2

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; MEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UOOOU	4-5	44%	8-2
MEM UOOOO	8-2	80%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 60–68, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
MEM	8-2 80%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+10.8▲ 0.1#21

MEM+6.5 →+1.6▼ 4.9#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SMU

Longer bar = better

MEM

#30

Offense

Even

#26

Defense

◀ SMU better

#86

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.6 #27

74 plays #11

Pace

◀ SMU faster

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #7	28.9 #100	SMU
Yards / play	6.44 #26	6.10 #112	SMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	+0.04 #42	Even
Success rate	43% #54	43% #89	SMU

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #9	16.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #32	4.39 #8	SMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	−0.07 #6	SMU
Success rate	46% #28	34% #5	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	13.2 #1	10.2 #30	23.4 #4	8.5 #21	8.6 #26	17.1 #16
MEM allowed	6.6 #99	7.8 #84	14.4 #91	5.3 #56	9.2 #114	14.5 #98

MEM scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.9 #29	12.6 #9	20.5 #14	9.0 #14	9.6 #14	18.6 #8
SMU allowed	3.1 #19	4.8 #18	7.9 #11	3.3 #16	5.2 #38	8.5 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.