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NCAAF · 2023 · Week 15

Army vs Navy

Sat, Dec 9, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site
Weather at kickoff47°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›
Army
5-6 · Power #104
17
▲ winner
Final
vs
Navy
5-6 · Power #108
11
final
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
ARMY 18–18 NAVY
✓ ARMY (53%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARMY−0.7 →−8.0▼ 7.3#103
NAVY−15.5 →−8.8▲ 6.7#109
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14
ARMY
Longer bar = better
NAVY
#108
Offense
◀ ARMY better
#123
#85
Defense
NAVY better ▶
#51
−0.5 #114
Turnovers
NAVY better ▶
+1.2 #4
62 plays #123
Pace
Even
62 plays #118
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ARMY has the ball
Advantage: NAVY defense
ARMY offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 20.8 #113 22.9 #46 NAVY
Yards / play 5.14 #106 5.64 #70 NAVY
PPA / play +0.04 #111 +0.05 #36 NAVY
Success rate 40% #103 41% #53 NAVY
When NAVY has the ball
Advantage: ARMY defense
NAVY offARMY defEdge
Points / game 18.3 #124 22.0 #39 ARMY
Yards / play 4.82 #121 5.98 #98 ARMY
PPA / play +0.01 #119 +0.13 #80 ARMY
Success rate 36% #128 46% #121 Even
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams
ARMY scoring against the NAVY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ARMY scored
6.1
#64
7.0
#83
13.1
#78
3.5
#118
4.3
#124
7.7
#128
NAVY allowed
6.5
#92
7.7
#73
14.3
#87
2.8
#8
5.8
#49
8.6
#17
NAVY scoring against the ARMY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NAVY scored
5.1
#87
3.3
#133
8.4
#127
3.2
#121
6.7
#69
9.9
#110
ARMY allowed
3.9
#24
6.7
#45
10.6
#34
4.4
#37
7.0
#84
11.4
#52
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
47° · 5 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARMY21d bye
NAVY14d bye
ARMY +7 days
Tempo
Slow 124 plays
slowavg 133fast
Quarterback
NAVY backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Army← vs CCU
Navy← @ SMU
ESPN box score ↗