Western Kentucky @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

4-4 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

3-6 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

WKU -9.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 33–24 UTEP

✓ WKU (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -9.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -9.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 9.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 21–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 54, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 9.7; 58.4 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	UTSA @ USM 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	23–20	L	U52.5
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-10	30–16	W	U53
Close	ORST @ COLO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-11.5	34–37	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3
UTEP LLWLW	3-6	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UU–UO	3-3	50%	4-4
UTEP OUUUO	3-6	33%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 50–58 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKUlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	3-3 50%
UTEPlast 9	3-6 33%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−3.4▼ 6.5#84

UTEP−4.4 →−12.4▼ 8.0#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WKU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#71

Offense

◀ WKU better

#93

#108

Defense

Even

#99

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.7 #119

68 plays #63

Pace

◀ WKU faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #59	27.2 #80	WKU
Yards / play	5.85 #62	6.10 #109	WKU
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.19 #113	WKU
Success rate	39% #107	43% #92	Even

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #122	29.5 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #77	6.06 #106	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.16 #98	Even
Success rate	40% #92	46% #123	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	11.1 #7	7.6 #74	18.8 #21	3.5 #119	7.6 #46	11.1 #95
UTEP allowed	6.6 #97	7.3 #69	13.9 #80	7.2 #101	6.1 #63	13.3 #83

UTEP scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.7 #94	6.0 #106	10.7 #107	2.7 #127	5.3 #99	8.0 #125
WKU allowed	4.4 #47	10.3 #112	14.6 #96	6.5 #87	8.4 #100	14.9 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.