San José State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

San José State

3-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

2-6 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

SJSU -10.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 34–24 HAW

✓ SJSU (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -10.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSJSU -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -10.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 10.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 35–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 57, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 10.7; 57 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	49–7	W	U57.25
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	40–27	W	O57.5
Very close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.25	45–10	W	U58
Very close	UTSA @ USM 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	23–20	L	U52.5
Very close	CCU @ ARST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	27–17	W	U59.5
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	55–7	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLPWW	5-2-1	71%	3-0-1	3-0
HAW LLLLL	1-6-1	14%	0-3-1	1-4

Venue/role: SJSU away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UO–OU	4-2	67%	3-5
HAW UUOOO	5-3	63%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSUlast 8	3-5 38%	5-2-1 71%	4-2 67%
HAWlast 8	2-6 25%	1-6-1 14%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−9.4 →−2.4▲ 7.0#77

HAW−6.5 →−14.9▼ 8.4#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SJSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#48

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#96

#110

Defense

Even

#118

+0.9 #14

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−1.6 #135

63 plays #107

Pace

HAW faster ▶

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #36	36.4 #128	SJSU
Yards / play	6.18 #45	6.14 #115	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.21 #119	SJSU
Success rate	44% #52	45% #108	SJSU

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #97	30.9 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #82	5.88 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #110	+0.24 #126	Even
Success rate	40% #95	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.4 #58	11.1 #19	17.5 #30	9.1 #14	6.1 #82	15.3 #39
HAW allowed	11.3 #130	10.6 #117	21.9 #133	5.9 #72	8.6 #105	14.5 #96

HAW scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	3.0 #118	6.8 #97	9.8 #115	4.3 #107	9.5 #20	13.8 #56
SJSU allowed	2.5 #12	11.8 #126	14.3 #87	7.0 #99	9.6 #119	16.6 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.