South Alabama @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

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South Alabama

2-3 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

2-2 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

USA -10

✓ USA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

USA 30–20 ULM

✓ USA (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 10-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 55–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 10.2; 61.5 points a game (usually 55).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	FAU @ USM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	31–45	L	O43.5
Very close	MRSH @ UNT 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	49–21	W	O66
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.75	34–37	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-2
ULM WLLW	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA –UUOO	2-2	50%	2-3
ULM –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	2-2 50%
ULMlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−6.2 →−2.6▲ 3.6#79

ULM+0.7 →−9.6▼ 10.3#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USA

Longer bar = better

ULM

#70

Offense

◀ USA better

#92

#70

Defense

◀ USA better

#99

0.0 #81

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+1.8 #3

64 plays #94

Pace

◀ USA faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #79	28.8 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #60	6.16 #110	USA
PPA / play	+0.20 #45	+0.14 #93	USA
Success rate	39% #96	44% #102	Even

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	ULM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #112	25.2 #73	USA
Yards / play	5.73 #75	5.69 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.12 #84	Even
Success rate	39% #99	38% #40	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USA scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	4.8 #87	7.4 #87	12.2 #95	5.4 #86	10.0 #16	15.4 #44
ULM allowed	6.0 #87	10.3 #110	16.3 #104	4.3 #47	8.3 #102	12.5 #74

ULM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	5.3 #79	8.5 #72	13.8 #76	3.0 #124	4.3 #112	7.3 #127
USA allowed	4.8 #66	8.8 #95	13.6 #81	2.8 #18	8.8 #111	11.6 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.