Arizona State @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

2-7 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

6-3 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

UCLA -14

✓ ASU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 15–30 UCLA

✗ UCLA (86%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -14

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 88%, covered 49% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -14

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 14-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 14.6; 45.3 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	28–0	W	U45
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-17	21–24	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WPWWL	4-4-1	50%	2-1	4-3-1
UCLA WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUUOO	3-6	33%	2-7
UCLA –OUUU	2-5	29%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASUlast 9	2-7 22%	4-4-1 50%	3-6 33%
UCLAlast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+0.4 →−6.5▼ 6.9#100

UCLA+2.8 →+9.0▲ 6.2#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ASU

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#123

Offense

UCLA better ▶

#63

#91

Defense

UCLA better ▶

#15

−1.1 #133

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

0.0 #78

68 plays #53

Pace

UCLA faster ▶

73 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	ASU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #131	16.3 #11	UCLA
Yards / play	4.87 #124	4.48 #10	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	−0.05 #10	UCLA
Success rate	38% #122	37% #27	UCLA

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #65	29.7 #103	UCLA
Yards / play	6.11 #45	5.34 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.17 #103	UCLA
Success rate	42% #66	44% #103	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.0 #85	6.9 #89	11.9 #93	2.3 #130	3.6 #130	5.9 #133
UCLA allowed	4.8 #48	4.4 #16	9.2 #24	4.4 #42	2.7 #1	7.1 #8

UCLA scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	7.0 #46	8.7 #53	15.7 #53	6.1 #65	6.8 #71	12.9 #72
ASU allowed	6.6 #99	7.4 #74	14.0 #85	5.6 #61	10.1 #126	15.7 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.