Air Force @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 11:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

8-1 · Power #52

final

Final

Hawai'i

3-7 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -20

✓ HAW W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 33–14 HAW

✗ AFA (92%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -20

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -20

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 20-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 27–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 46, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.5 against an average line of 18.9; 41.1 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	23–3	W	U49
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Close	ARMY @ MASS 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-20	44–7	W	O45.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	LIB @ MASS 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-22.5	42–24	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WLPWL	4-4-1	50%	2-0-1	4-4-1
HAW LLLLW	2-7-1	22%	0-4-1	2-5

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOUUU	4-5	44%	8-1
HAW OOOUU	5-5	50%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 42–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFAlast 9	8-1 89%	4-4-1 50%	4-5 44%
HAW	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA+5.5 →+4.3▼ 1.2#41

HAW−6.5 →−14.7▼ 8.2#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AFA

Longer bar = better

HAW

#37

Offense

◀ AFA better

#106

#14

Defense

◀ AFA better

#102

−0.2 #93

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−1.4 #134

63 plays #113

Pace

HAW faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #48	34.0 #122	AFA
Yards / play	5.85 #62	5.94 #102	AFA
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	+0.16 #101	AFA
Success rate	49% #13	43% #81	AFA

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	HAW off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #109	14.4 #5	AFA
Yards / play	5.22 #96	4.23 #4	AFA
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	−0.02 #17	AFA
Success rate	39% #102	37% #30	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.9 #76	9.8 #40	15.7 #53	6.9 #52	7.7 #48	14.6 #46
HAW allowed	9.7 #130	9.9 #109	19.6 #128	6.8 #95	7.6 #92	14.4 #95

HAW scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.4 #129	7.1 #82	9.5 #114	4.1 #113	7.9 #39	12.0 #84
AFA allowed	4.1 #38	6.3 #44	10.4 #35	1.1 #3	2.9 #2	4.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.