Kansas State @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

7-3 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

7-3 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

KSU -7

✓ KU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 34–26 KU

✓ KSU (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -7

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -7

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 7-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 31–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 68%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 7.3; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Very close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	BAY @ TCU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	28–30	L	O57
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	31–21	P	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWWPW	7-2-1	78%	1-2-1	6-2
KU WLWWL	5-5	50%	4-2	2-1

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OUUOO	6-3	67%	7-3
KU –OOUU	4-5	44%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 41% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	6-3 67%
KU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+2.0 →+16.6▲ 14.6#11

KU+2.0 →+6.0▲ 4.0#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

KSU

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

Even

#20

#22

Defense

◀ KSU better

#87

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

+0.3 #40

73 plays #18

Pace

◀ KSU faster

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #11	26.2 #67	KSU
Yards / play	6.24 #36	5.84 #87	KSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	+0.14 #86	KSU
Success rate	48% #12	45% #107	KSU

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #34	18.5 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #16	5.18 #37	KU
PPA / play	+0.29 #10	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	48% #18	37% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.7 #19	12.5 #8	21.2 #9	9.0 #12	8.6 #26	17.6 #14
KU allowed	5.1 #63	6.4 #44	11.5 #46	5.9 #75	8.8 #108	14.7 #103

KU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	6.6 #54	9.0 #49	15.6 #50	8.7 #19	8.4 #30	17.1 #17
KSU allowed	5.0 #60	6.1 #38	11.1 #40	3.6 #19	3.5 #8	7.1 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.