Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

4-6 · Power #97

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Southern

6-4 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

GASO -5.5

✓ ODU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 27–33 GASO

✗ GASO (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -5.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGASO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -5.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 5.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 6.3; 55.1 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Very close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	31–10	W	U60
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	51–31	W	O66
Very close	ARST vs USA 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–38	L	O63.5
Very close	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	23–13	W	U61
Very close	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WWWLL	6-3	67%	3-2	6-2
GASO LLWLL	4-5-1	44%	3-1-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU –UOOU	5-3	63%	4-6
GASO UOOOO	5-5	50%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	5-3 63%
GASO	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.2 →−7.2▼ 2.0#100

GASO+2.5 →−2.4▼ 4.9#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ODU

Longer bar = better

GASO

#98

Offense

GASO better ▶

#50

#76

Defense

◀ ODU better

#94

−0.3 #99

Turnovers

GASO better ▶

−0.1 #83

65 plays #89

Pace

GASO faster ▶

76 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	28.0 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #82	5.97 #104	ODU
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.13 #88	GASO
Success rate	40% #96	44% #96	Even

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #34	27.4 #83	GASO
Yards / play	5.74 #65	5.37 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #63	+0.08 #54	Even
Success rate	45% #39	45% #111	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.4 #129	8.5 #56	10.9 #105	7.6 #38	4.5 #119	12.1 #79
GASO allowed	5.2 #64	8.0 #79	13.2 #72	9.4 #128	5.4 #45	14.8 #106

GASO scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.2 #45	12.5 #8	19.7 #14	6.8 #56	6.2 #87	13.0 #66
ODU allowed	5.3 #72	7.6 #70	12.9 #67	8.7 #123	5.8 #49	14.5 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.