Cincinnati @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

2-7 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

Houston

4-5 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

HOU -3

✓ CIN W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–29 HOU

✗ HOU (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 2.6; 49.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–27	L	U54.5
Very close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	16–40	L	O53
Very close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	15–14	L	U52
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	BAY vs HOU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–25	L	U58.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LLLLW	3-6	33%	1-2	2-2
HOU LWWLW	5-4	56%	4-1	1-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOOU	6-3	67%	2-7
HOU OOUUU	4-5	44%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
HOUlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.0 →−1.3▼ 2.3#71

HOU−2.3 →−2.9▼ 0.6#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#68

Offense

◀ CIN better

#82

#88

Defense

◀ CIN better

#113

−0.7 #124

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.3 #39

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ CIN faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #80	31.6 #112	CIN
Yards / play	6.03 #51	5.92 #98	CIN
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.20 #118	CIN
Success rate	42% #70	47% #124	CIN

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #82	28.3 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #73	6.09 #110	HOU
PPA / play	+0.06 #95	+0.19 #115	Even
Success rate	42% #76	39% #38	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.8 #49	7.2 #81	14.0 #70	4.8 #100	6.6 #77	11.3 #95
HOU allowed	9.7 #129	7.7 #81	17.3 #116	4.4 #41	7.3 #90	11.8 #58

HOU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.6 #95	8.4 #61	13.0 #80	3.4 #119	6.4 #80	9.9 #112
CIN allowed	5.3 #70	7.2 #67	12.6 #61	8.2 #122	6.8 #76	15.0 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.