Oregon State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 8:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F5 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon State

8-3 · Power #20

final

Final

Oregon

10-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -14

✓ ORE W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 24–38 ORE

✓ ORE (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -14

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 86%, covered 51% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -14

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 14-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 61.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 13.8; 60.4 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-13	27–20	L	U62
Very close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Very close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	52–17	W	O58.75
Close	CLEM vs MIAMI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-14.25	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WLLWL	6-5	55%	2-3	—
ORE LWWLW	9-2	82%	4-2	8-2

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OUUOU	4-5	44%	8-3
ORE OUOUO	5-6	45%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%
ORE	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+12.7▲ 1.5#16

ORE+8.3 →+22.6▲ 14.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ORST

Longer bar = better

ORE

#13

Offense

Even

#35

Defense

ORE better ▶

#16

+0.7 #21

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #18

66 plays #81

Pace

ORE faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #17	16.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #13	4.84 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #12	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	50% #9	37% #18	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #2	20.6 #36	ORE
Yards / play	7.93 #2	5.12 #29	ORE
PPA / play	+0.48 #2	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	57% #1	41% #57	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.5 #21	10.1 #32	18.5 #18	8.4 #24	9.4 #15	17.7 #11
ORE allowed	4.9 #54	3.9 #10	8.8 #22	3.0 #8	4.9 #28	7.9 #13

ORE scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	13.4 #1	14.5 #4	27.8 #1	9.9 #8	8.8 #20	18.7 #6
ORST allowed	3.0 #16	6.6 #45	9.6 #26	3.7 #18	7.3 #90	11.0 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.