Washington State @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

5-6 · Power #46

final

Final

Washington

11-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -15.5

✓ WSU W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 24–39 WASH

✓ WASH (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -15.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 49% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -15.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 15.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 65, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18.7 against an average line of 15.5; 69.7 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs FLA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16	52–35	W	O68
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Very close	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5
Very close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	PITT vs UVA 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13	48–38	L	O67.5
Very close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	63–35	W	O61.5
Very close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Very close	ISU vs TCU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	48–14	W	O61.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WLLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	3-2
WASH LLWLW	5-5-1	50%	2-3-1	4-5-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OOUOO	7-3	70%	5-6
WASH UOOOU	5-5	50%	11-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 45% of games with totals 61–69 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
WASH	10-0 100%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSU 32–70 WASH (4 tied) WASH leads · 106 games since 1917 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+5.5 →+3.1▼ 2.4#46

WASH+9.9 →+15.0▲ 5.1#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WSU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#47

Offense

WASH better ▶

#74

Defense

Even

#69

−0.5 #116

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

0.0 #67

71 plays #31

Pace

◀ WSU faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #33	23.2 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #50	5.53 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #72	+0.07 #50	WASH
Success rate	46% #33	45% #108	WSU

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #10	28.5 #95	WASH
Yards / play	7.55 #3	5.74 #82	WASH
PPA / play	+0.35 #6	+0.10 #65	WASH
Success rate	53% #4	41% #53	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	8.8 #18	12.3 #9	21.1 #10	5.7 #78	5.8 #94	11.5 #89
WASH allowed	4.6 #46	8.2 #82	12.8 #65	5.7 #65	4.6 #24	10.4 #36

WASH scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	10.3 #8	15.0 #1	25.3 #3	6.6 #61	7.4 #53	14.0 #53
WSU allowed	4.9 #54	7.6 #71	12.5 #61	5.5 #61	10.4 #131	15.9 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.