Notre Dame @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Stanford

Weather at kickoff57°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

8-3 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

3-8 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

ND -26

✓ ND W

Total

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 39–14 STAN

✓ ND (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -26

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -26

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -26

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 26-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 56–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 50, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.2 against an average line of 25.2; 57.6 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	HOU @ TEM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	37–8	W	U52.5
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Close	MICH @ MSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	49–0	W	O46.5
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	49–13	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND LWWLW	7-3-1	70%	2-2	7-3
STAN LWWLL	5-6	45%	2-4	4-5

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND –OOOO	7-2	78%	8-3
STAN UOUOU	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-2 78%
STAN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ND 26–14 STAN ND leads · 40 games since 1924 · ND has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+9.1 →+17.5▲ 8.4#9

STAN+2.6 →−8.5▼ 11.1#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

STAN

#18

Offense

◀ ND better

#105

Defense

◀ ND better

#132

+0.7 #18

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.5 #113

62 plays #120

Pace

STAN faster ▶

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #14	36.0 #130	ND
Yards / play	6.83 #10	6.43 #126	ND
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	+0.29 #135	ND
Success rate	46% #27	50% #135	ND

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	STAN off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #114	16.0 #8	ND
Yards / play	5.05 #111	4.38 #5	ND
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	−0.06 #7	ND
Success rate	39% #109	36% #14	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ND scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.3 #58	10.5 #25	16.8 #36	10.5 #4	10.2 #7	20.7 #3
STAN allowed	7.3 #105	13.0 #133	20.3 #130	7.3 #108	7.8 #96	15.1 #108

STAN scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.7 #126	4.8 #126	7.5 #132	7.1 #55	4.8 #114	11.9 #83
ND allowed	2.7 #11	3.7 #7	6.5 #5	4.6 #43	4.9 #30	9.5 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.