UConn @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff36°F2 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UConn

2-9 · Power #125

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

3-8 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

MASS -2.5

✓ CONN W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 26–29 MASS

✗ MASS (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -2.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMASS -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (91 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -2.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MASS as a 2.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 31–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.4; 57.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LWLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4
MASS WLWLW	5-6	45%	1-4	0-3

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; MASS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UUOOU	4-5	44%	2-9
MASS –OUUO	7-3	70%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 57% of games with totals 47–55 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
MASS	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CONN 6–4 MASS CONN leads · 10 games since 1899 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−5.0 →−14.4▼ 9.4#126

MASS−11.8 →−13.5▼ 1.7#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CONN

Longer bar = better

MASS

#115

Offense

MASS better ▶

#72

#118

Defense

◀ CONN better

#135

−0.5 #118

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

+0.1 #53

64 plays #102

Pace

◀ CONN faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #126	38.5 #135	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #115	6.93 #136	CONN
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.29 #134	Even
Success rate	39% #103	49% #134	CONN

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #93	30.9 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #60	6.18 #116	MASS
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.21 #119	MASS
Success rate	42% #69	47% #128	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	4.0 #106	4.9 #126	8.9 #123	2.3 #130	6.8 #64	9.1 #118
MASS allowed	10.0 #132	11.1 #128	21.1 #133	7.9 #115	8.9 #110	16.8 #122

MASS scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.7 #111	6.2 #98	9.9 #110	4.6 #99	8.8 #19	13.5 #55
CONN allowed	6.6 #94	9.5 #106	16.2 #105	9.5 #130	5.3 #44	14.7 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.