Western Kentucky @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Kentucky

6-5 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

4-7 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

WKU -11

✓ WKU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 33–22 FIU

✓ WKU (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -11

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Road favorites of 9–13 since 2023: won 86%, covered 60% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -11

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as an 11-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 41–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 10.4; 62.5 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Very close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	41–24	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LLLLL	3-8	27%	1-4	2-6
FIU LWLLW	5-6	45%	1-4	5-4

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUOU	4-5	44%	6-5
FIU UOOUO	4-5	44%	4-7

Went over in Q3. Of 144 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-5 44%
FIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−4.3▼ 7.4#85

FIU−5.6 →−16.0▼ 10.4#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WKU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#67

Offense

◀ WKU better

#118

#98

Defense

Even

#89

+0.5 #28

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.6 #125

67 plays #71

Pace

◀ WKU faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #60	31.0 #109	WKU
Yards / play	5.94 #55	6.02 #106	WKU
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.15 #90	WKU
Success rate	40% #91	40% #51	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #120	28.2 #93	WKU
Yards / play	5.11 #107	5.92 #95	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.15 #92	WKU
Success rate	37% #122	45% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	10.0 #9	7.5 #73	17.5 #29	3.8 #114	7.5 #50	11.4 #93
FIU allowed	9.4 #129	8.8 #96	18.2 #120	4.3 #34	7.9 #97	12.2 #67

FIU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.8 #73	6.1 #100	11.9 #92	5.3 #88	1.0 #133	6.3 #130
WKU allowed	3.5 #22	10.5 #119	13.9 #83	6.0 #75	8.3 #104	14.3 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.