Massachusetts @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Army

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

1-7 · Power #127

▲ winner

Final

Army

2-5 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

ARMY -10

✓ MASS W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 20–30 ARMY

✗ ARMY (77%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARMY -10

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARMY -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8–12 since 2023: won 84%, covered 48% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARMY -10

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 10-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MASS won 21–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 10; 36.8 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	28–0	W	U44
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	27–22	L	P49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WLLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-3
ARMY WPLLL	2-4-1	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOO–O	6-1	86%	1-7
ARMY OU–UO	3-2	60%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASSlast 8	1-7 13%	3-5 38%	6-1 86%
ARMYlast 7	2-5 29%	2-4-1 33%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−11.8 →−16.2▼ 4.4#130

ARMY−0.7 →−8.4▼ 7.7#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MASS

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#86

Offense

◀ MASS better

#114

#134

Defense

ARMY better ▶

#103

−0.1 #72

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−1.3 #133

63 plays #104

Pace

Even

63 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #104	26.1 #77	ARMY
Yards / play	5.73 #69	6.17 #117	MASS
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	+0.18 #102	Even
Success rate	40% #88	45% #117	MASS

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #110	42.4 #134	ARMY
Yards / play	5.03 #112	7.39 #134	ARMY
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.32 #133	Even
Success rate	38% #113	51% #133	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	2.6 #126	6.4 #104	9.0 #121	5.0 #97	8.5 #31	13.5 #65
ARMY allowed	3.3 #28	9.1 #97	12.4 #70	5.7 #68	8.0 #97	13.7 #88

ARMY scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	5.1 #86	6.1 #109	11.3 #102	4.4 #104	5.3 #101	9.7 #114
MASS allowed	10.3 #128	12.6 #132	22.9 #133	10.0 #131	8.8 #110	18.8 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.