Colorado State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Colorado State

3-3 · Power #109

final

Final

UNLV

5-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -6.5

✓ CSU W

Total

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 27–34 UNLV

✓ UNLV (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 60% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 25–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 60, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 6.5; 59.8 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Very close	NEV vs FRES 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	37–26	W	O59
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	23–13	W	U61
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	UVA vs NCST 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	21–38	L	O58.75
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	24–27	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-1
UNLV WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOUOO	5-1	83%	3-3
UNLV UOOOO	4-2	67%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 42% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%
UNLVlast 6	5-1 83%	6-0 100%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−8.2▼ 1.1#107

UNLV−2.6 →−3.4▼ 0.8#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CSU

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#72

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#43

#94

Defense

Even

#81

−0.3 #97

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.5 #4

73 plays #23

Pace

◀ CSU faster

69 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #52	26.8 #79	CSU
Yards / play	5.84 #62	6.16 #112	CSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	+0.10 #72	UNLV
Success rate	41% #78	41% #60	Even

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #14	35.0 #122	UNLV
Yards / play	6.03 #55	6.02 #102	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.26 #20	+0.09 #66	UNLV
Success rate	41% #81	43% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	9.7 #14	2.3 #133	12.0 #97	3.8 #116	14.0 #1	17.8 #16
UNLV allowed	5.2 #75	5.2 #26	10.3 #44	7.5 #103	9.0 #114	16.5 #118

UNLV scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.7 #23	11.3 #20	20.0 #12	7.3 #50	10.2 #18	17.5 #21
CSU allowed	7.3 #111	9.2 #100	16.5 #110	4.8 #49	11.2 #128	16.0 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.