Western Kentucky @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ohio State

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

2-0 · Power #83

final

Final

Ohio State

2-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -29.5

✓ OSU W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 16–43 OSU

✓ OSU (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -29.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -29.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -29.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like OSU as a 29.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 63–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 73 points went over 65, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31 against an average line of 28.5; 64.2 points a game (usually 57.6). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OSU vs TOL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31.5	77–21	W	O63
Loose	ALA vs TENN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.5	52–24	W	O68
Loose	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	USC vs STAN 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-28.5	56–10	W	U70
Loose	ALA vs LSU 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-29	20–14	L	U67

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WL	1-1	50%	—	—
OSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU –O	1-0	100%	2-0
OSU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 10 earlier overs in games with totals 61–69, 50% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
OSUlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →+3.2▲ 0.1#42

OSU+8.6 →+14.7▲ 6.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WKU

Longer bar = better

OSU

#34

Offense

Even

#40

#88

Defense

OSU better ▶

#14

+3.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

0.0 #73

68 plays #60

Pace

◀ WKU faster

64 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #14	5.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #30	3.46 #4	OSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #26	−0.05 #35	Even
Success rate	44% #67	31% #14	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #73	23.0 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #27	5.71 #96	OSU
PPA / play	+0.37 #20	+0.10 #83	OSU
Success rate	48% #41	45% #105	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 66 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	15.5	8.5	24.0	10.5	12.0	22.5
OSU allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

OSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	10.5	8.5	19.0	8.5	1.5	10.0
WKU allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.5	4.0	7.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.