Stanford @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

1-0 · Power #106

final

Final

USC

2-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -28.5

✓ USC W

Total

70.5

▼ Under · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 18–43 USC

✓ USC (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -28.5

Total70.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -28.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close70.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -28.5

Total70.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like USC as a 28.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 56–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 66 points stayed under 70.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 60%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28 against an average line of 25.5; 76 points a game (usually 58.7). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ALA vs TENN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.5	52–24	W	O68

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN W	1-0	100%	1-0	—
USC LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN O	1-0	100%	1-0
USC O–	1-0	100%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
USClast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

STAN

Longer bar = better

USC

#52

Offense

USC better ▶

#68

Defense

Even

#67

0.0 #67

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #61

70 plays #47

Pace

◀ STAN faster

62 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #39	21.0 #62	STAN
Yards / play	5.80 #73	5.48 #80	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #47	+0.09 #79	STAN
Success rate	46% #49	37% #48	Even

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	61.0 #1	24.0 #73	USC
Yards / play	9.50 #1	5.07 #63	USC
PPA / play	+0.63 #1	+0.13 #92	USC
Success rate	58% #6	36% #42	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.