Vanderbilt @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UNLV

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-1 · Power #111

final

Final

UNLV

1-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -4.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 31–26 UNLV

✗ VAN (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVAN -4.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVAN -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVAN -4.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 4.5-point road favorite at UNLV, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 40–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 61%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 3.5; 55.1 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LT @ UTSA 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	26–27	L	U53.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–24	L	U54
Close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	29–0	W	U54
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	45–50	L	O53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
UNLV WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: VAN away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
UNLV UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 44% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VANlast 3	2-1 67%	0-3 0%	3-0 100%
UNLVlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+2.1 →−2.3▼ 4.4#81

UNLV−2.6 →−10.6▼ 8.0#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

VAN

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#64

Offense

◀ VAN better

#109

#90

Defense

◀ VAN better

#111

0.0 #64

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

61 plays #110

Pace

Even

61 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #52	24.5 #78	VAN
Yards / play	6.42 #42	6.83 #125	VAN
PPA / play	+0.02 #111	+0.22 #109	Even
Success rate	46% #50	52% #130	VAN

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #96	25.7 #87	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #103	5.74 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	33% #125	41% #81	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #40	9.3 #37	15.7 #39	7.0 #35	11.3 #10	18.3 #17
UNLV allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	10.5	3.5	14.0

UNLV scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.5	3.5	12.0	8.5	5.0	13.5
VAN allowed	4.3 #46	9.3 #56	13.7 #51	3.3 #28	8.7 #65	12.0 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.