Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at UL Monroe
Weather at kickoff94°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #104
13
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #129
17
▲ winner
Closing spread
ARMY -7
✓ ULM W
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
ARMY 29–25 ULM
✗ ARMY (64%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseARMY -7
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseARMY -7
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 7-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 17–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
1 of 1010%
Below normal · usually 68%
Favorite covered
0 of 90%
Below normal · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 10.2 against an average line of 6.8; 53.8 points a game (usually 54.2).

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
UCLA @ COLO
2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-6.542–48 L O56.5
Very close
NAVY @ AFA
2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation
-6.57–40 L O46.5
Very close
SJSU @ FRES
2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread
-710–17 L U47
Very close
UTAH @ BYU
2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation
-717–26 L U50
Very close
GT @ SYR
2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread
-7.520–37 L O52
Very close
TLSA @ WYO
2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation
-6.537–40 L O46
Very close
LOU @ SYR
2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread
-67–31 L U55
Very close
WMU @ BUFF
2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread
-724–17 P U59.5
Very close
TOL @ BUFF
2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread
-727–34 L O56
Close
HOU @ MEM
2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread
-6.527–30 L U64.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Army have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
ULM +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 5 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARMY1st game
ULM1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week