Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at UL Monroe
Closing spread
ARMY -7
✓ ULM W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
ARMY 29–25 ULM
✗ ARMY (64%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseARMY -7
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseARMY -7
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseARMY -7
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
ARMY as a 7-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: ULM won 17–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
1 of 1010%
Below normal · usually 68%
Favorite covered
0 of 90%
Below normal · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 10.2 against an average line of 6.8; 53.8 points a game (usually 54.2).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 42–48 | L | O56.5 |
| Very close | 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-6.5 | 7–40 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread |
-7 | 10–17 | L | U47 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7 | 17–26 | L | U50 |
| Very close | 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread |
-7.5 | 20–37 | L | O52 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-6.5 | 37–40 | L | O46 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread |
-6 | 7–31 | L | U55 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread |
-7 | 24–17 | P | U59.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread |
-7 | 27–34 | L | O56 |
| Close | 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread |
-6.5 | 27–30 | L | U64.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Army have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 5 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARMY1st game
ULM1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

