Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at BYU
Closing spread
BYU -23
✓ SHSU W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
SHSU 17–37 BYU
✓ BYU (92%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBYU -23
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseBYU -23
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBYU -23
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BYU as a 23-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: BYU won 14–0; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 22; 43.3 points a game (usually 55.7).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  MSU vs  WMU2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-21.75 | 35–13 | W | U54.5 |
| Very close |  OKST vs  TLSA2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-24 | 16–7 | L | U67 |
| Close |  MRSH vs  FAU2020 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings |
-19 | 20–9 | L | U51 |
| Close |  ARMY vs  ULM2020 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-24 | 37–7 | W | U53.5 |
| Close |  UNC vs  SYR2020 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-24 | 31–6 | W | U66.5 |
| Close |  CIN vs  USF2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-22 | 28–7 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |  MIZ vs  LT2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-20.5 | 52–24 | W | O62.5 |
| Close |  PITT vs SYR2020 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread |
-21 | 21–10 | L | U47 |
| Loose |  NCST vs USF2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-20 | 45–0 | W | U58 |
| Loose |  WASH vs  KENT2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-23.5 | 45–20 | W | O61.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight BYU ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
BYU at altitude (+1.3 km)
Sam Houston climb about 4,200 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Sam Houston have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BYU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
71° · 3 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SHSU1st game
BYU1st game
Even
Altitude
SHSU +4,200 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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