NCAAF First-Half Team Trends 2023: 1H ATS, Over/Under, Fast Starters

NCAAF first-half team trends, 2023

Who covers the 1st half, who goes over or under at halftime, who starts fast and who finishes strong. Graded against 1st-half lines (real ESPN lines for the NFL from 2025, otherwise estimated).

Best 1st-half ATS

4+ games

Missouri10-376.9%

West Virginia10-376.9%

Miami (OH)9-3-275%

Old Dominion9-375%

Northwestern9-3-175%

Liberty10-471.4%

Boise State10-471.4%

Miami9-469.2%

Worst 1st-half ATS

4+ games

Vanderbilt1-118.3%

TCU2-9-118.2%

Massachusetts3-925%

Temple3-925%

Baylor3-925%

Illinois3-925%

Marshall3-8-227.3%

Oklahoma State4-1028.6%

1st-half overs

Over the 1H total

Virginia Tech10-283.3%

Liberty9-2-181.8%

BYU9-281.8%

Bowling Green8-2-180%

Florida International8-280%

North Texas8-280%

New Mexico8-2-280%

Illinois8-280%

1st-half unders

Under the 1H total

Ohio2-981.8% U

Troy3-1076.9% U

Northern Illinois3-975% U

Arizona3-975% U

East Carolina3-975% U

Missouri3-8-172.7% U

Ohio State3-8-172.7% U

Iowa3-7-170% U

Fast starters

Ahead in the 1st half, better than in the 2nd

Washington State1H +7.82H -4.3

Georgia State1H +3.52H -6.3

Texas State1H +6.62H -2.8

UAB1H +1.12H -8.1

SMU1H +14.62H +6.3

Tulane1H +6.92H -1.0

Washington1H +9.32H +1.9

Middle Tennessee1H +1.72H -5.5

Active 1H cover streaks

Consecutive 1st halves covered or missed

NorthwesternCovered 9

Bowling GreenCovered 7

Boise StateCovered 5

Southern MissCovered 5

PittsburghCovered 4

UConnCovered 3

FloridaCovered 3

Georgia TechCovered 3

1st-half ATS splits

Home / away, 1st-half favorite / underdog, last 5 games and current streak

Team	GP	1H ATS	Cover %	Home	Away	As fav	As dog	Last 5	1H O-U	Streak
Missouri State	1	1-0	100%	—	1-0	—	1-0	1-0	0-1	W1
Sacramento State	1	1-0	100%	—	1-0	—	1-0	1-0	0-1	W1
Kennesaw State	1	1-0	100%	—	1-0	—	1-0	1-0	1-0	W1
Missouri	13	10-3	76.9%	5-2	4-0	5-2	5-1	3-2	3-8-1	L1
West Virginia	13	10-3	76.9%	5-1	4-2	6-2	4-1	4-1	8-4	W3
Miami (OH)	14	9-3-2	75%	2-2-1	5-1-1	5-1-2	4-2	3-0-2	6-5-1	W2
Old Dominion	13	9-3	75%	4-1	4-2	2-1	7-2	3-2	6-5	W1
Northwestern	13	9-3-1	75%	4-2	3-1-1	2-1	7-2-1	5-0	4-9	W9
Liberty	14	10-4	71.4%	6-2	4-1	10-3	0-1	3-2	9-2-1	L2
Boise State	14	10-4	71.4%	5-1	4-3	7-2	3-2	5-0	6-5-1	W5
Miami	13	9-4	69.2%	5-2	4-1	4-3	4-1	3-2	7-4	L1
Georgia Tech	13	9-4	69.2%	3-3	4-1	1-3	7-1	4-1	5-6	W3
Bowling Green	13	9-4	69.2%	3-2	5-2	4-1	5-3	5-0	8-2-1	W7
Kansas State	13	9-4	69.2%	7-0	1-4	8-3	1-1	3-2	9-3	W2
Texas State	13	9-4	69.2%	4-2	4-2	4-4	5-0	3-2	7-5	W2
Western Michigan	12	8-4	66.7%	3-2	5-2	4-0	4-4	3-2	8-4	L2
UConn	12	8-4	66.7%	4-2	4-2	2-1	6-3	4-1	4-6	W3
East Carolina	12	8-4	66.7%	5-1	3-3	2-1	6-3	3-2	3-9	W1
Washington State	12	8-4	66.7%	4-2	4-2	3-3	5-1	2-3	6-5	W2
Oregon	14	9-5	64.3%	5-2	3-2	9-4	0-1	3-2	6-7-1	W1
UNLV	14	9-5	64.3%	4-3	5-1	5-2	4-3	1-4	8-6	L4
Akron	12	7-4-1	63.6%	2-3	5-1-1	1-2	6-2-1	2-2-1	3-6-1	W2
Army	12	7-4	63.6%	3-3	3-1	3-2	4-2	3-1	5-4	—
Jacksonville State	13	8-5	61.5%	5-1	3-3	4-3	4-2	3-2	5-8	L2
San José State	13	8-5	61.5%	3-3	5-1	3-4	5-1	3-2	5-6	L1
Georgia State	13	8-5	61.5%	3-3	4-2	4-2	4-2	2-3	6-7	W2
NC State	13	8-5	61.5%	5-2	3-2	3-2	5-3	4-1	4-7	L1
Eastern Michigan	13	8-5	61.5%	4-2	4-3	4-2	4-3	1-4	7-5	L1
Kansas	13	8-5	61.5%	4-3	3-2	4-5	4-0	4-1	7-5	W3
Tennessee	13	8-5	61.5%	4-3	2-2	7-4	1-1	3-2	8-5	W2
Oklahoma	13	8-5	61.5%	5-1	1-4	6-5	2-0	3-2	6-5	W2
Rice	13	8-5	61.5%	4-3	4-1	2-3	5-2	4-1	6-6	L1
Auburn	13	8-5	61.5%	5-2	3-2	3-4	5-1	3-2	5-8	L1
South Florida	13	8-5	61.5%	4-2	3-3	2-3	6-2	4-1	7-5	W2
Georgia Southern	13	8-5	61.5%	5-1	3-3	6-2	1-3	1-4	6-6-1	L3
Texas A&M	13	8-5	61.5%	5-2	2-2	5-3	3-2	2-3	7-5	L1
Arizona	13	8-5	61.5%	5-1	3-3	3-4	5-1	3-2	3-9	L1
Michigan	15	9-6	60%	2-5	5-0	9-6	—	4-1	4-8-2	W2
Rutgers	13	7-5	58.3%	4-3	2-2	4-3	3-2	3-1	5-6	W1
UAB	12	7-5	58.3%	4-2	3-3	1-3	5-2	3-2	8-3-1	W1
Arizona State	12	7-5	58.3%	4-4	3-1	0-1	7-4	2-3	6-6	L2
Virginia	12	7-5	58.3%	3-3	4-1	1-0	6-4	2-3	6-6	L1
Indiana	12	7-5	58.3%	3-3	4-1	0-3	7-2	4-1	7-5	W1
Houston	12	7-5	58.3%	5-2	2-3	1-2	6-3	3-2	5-7	W2
Southern Miss	12	7-5	58.3%	4-2	3-3	3-1	4-4	5-0	7-4	W5
BYU	12	7-5	58.3%	4-2	3-3	1-1	5-4	2-3	9-2	W2
Sam Houston	12	7-5	58.3%	3-2	3-3	1-2	6-3	4-1	6-4	W3
Louisville	14	8-6	57.1%	6-1	1-2	7-4	1-0	1-4	4-8	L4
Tulane	14	8-6	57.1%	4-4	3-2	6-6	2-0	3-2	5-8	W1
New Mexico	12	6-5-1	54.5%	3-2-1	3-3	1-1	5-3-1	1-3-1	8-2-2	—
SMU	14	7-6-1	53.8%	5-1	2-4-1	6-5	1-1-1	2-3	4-9	L1
Notre Dame	13	7-6	53.8%	3-3	2-3	7-5	0-1	2-3	4-7	W1
UCF	13	7-6	53.8%	4-2	3-3	4-4	3-2	3-2	4-7	L2
Ole Miss	13	7-6	53.8%	5-2	1-4	4-5	3-1	2-3	5-7	W1
Iowa State	13	7-6	53.8%	4-2	3-3	4-2	3-4	2-3	8-4	L2
Maryland	13	7-6	53.8%	2-5	4-1	5-4	2-2	3-2	9-3	W2
California	13	7-6	53.8%	4-2	3-3	2-2	5-4	3-2	7-4	L1
Louisiana	13	7-6	53.8%	2-4	4-2	2-6	5-0	3-2	5-8	W3
Coastal Carolina	13	7-6	53.8%	3-3	3-3	2-3	5-3	2-3	5-6-1	W1
Clemson	13	7-6	53.8%	5-2	2-3	5-6	2-0	4-1	6-5	L1
Washington	15	8-7	53.3%	3-4	3-2	5-6	3-1	3-2	7-7	L1
Texas	14	7-7	50%	3-3	3-2	6-7	1-0	3-2	6-7	L1
Toledo	14	7-7	50%	3-3	3-3	5-7	2-0	3-2	5-6-1	W1
James Madison	13	6-6-1	50%	2-4	4-1-1	5-5-1	1-1	2-3	5-8	L1
UTSA	13	6-6-1	50%	3-3	3-3	6-4-1	0-2	2-2-1	8-4	—
Virginia Tech	13	6-6-1	50%	3-2-1	3-3	4-3	2-3	2-3	10-2	L1
Duke	13	6-6-1	50%	2-4-1	3-2	2-4-1	4-2	2-3	5-7	W1
San Diego State	12	6-6	50%	4-3	2-3	1-3	5-3	3-2	6-5	W2
Wake Forest	12	6-6	50%	3-3	3-3	2-2	4-4	2-3	5-6	L1
Florida	12	6-6	50%	3-3	3-2	1-3	5-3	3-2	5-5	W3
Tulsa	12	6-6	50%	3-3	3-3	2-2	4-4	3-2	7-4	L1
Michigan State	12	5-5-2	50%	2-4-1	3-1-1	0-1-1	5-4-1	3-1-1	5-5-1	W2
Stanford	12	6-6	50%	4-3	2-3	1-1	5-5	3-2	5-7	W1
Colorado	12	6-6	50%	3-3	3-3	2-2	4-4	3-2	6-5	W1
Pittsburgh	12	6-6	50%	3-3	2-3	3-3	3-3	4-1	5-6-1	W4
Middle Tennessee	12	6-6	50%	4-2	2-4	4-3	2-3	2-3	6-5	L2
New Mexico State	15	7-8	46.7%	3-3	4-4	2-5	5-3	3-2	5-8-1	L1
Utah	13	6-7	46.2%	4-3	2-3	4-4	2-3	2-3	7-5	L3
Arkansas State	13	6-7	46.2%	4-2	2-4	1-1	5-6	2-3	5-6	L2
Kentucky	13	6-7	46.2%	2-5	3-2	4-3	2-4	3-2	8-4	W2
Boston College	13	6-7	46.2%	2-5	3-2	2-3	4-4	2-3	6-6	W1
Air Force	13	6-7	46.2%	4-1	1-4	6-6	0-1	2-3	9-3-1	W1
Ohio State	13	6-7	46.2%	3-3	2-4	6-6	0-1	2-3	3-8-1	W1
Memphis	13	6-7	46.2%	2-4	3-2	4-6	2-1	3-2	9-3-1	W3
South Alabama	13	6-7	46.2%	4-3	2-4	4-4	2-3	3-2	5-6	W1
Wyoming	13	6-7	46.2%	3-4	3-2	2-5	4-2	2-3	5-5-1	L1
Texas Tech	13	6-7	46.2%	3-3	2-4	4-5	2-2	3-2	5-6	W1
Oregon State	13	6-7	46.2%	4-2	2-4	6-5	0-2	2-3	4-7	L3
LSU	13	6-7	46.2%	3-4	2-2	5-7	1-0	2-3	7-4	L2
Iowa	14	5-6-1	45.5%	2-3-1	2-1	3-4-1	2-2	1-2	3-7-1	L1
Utah State	13	5-6-2	45.5%	4-2	1-3-2	2-3-1	3-3-1	1-3-1	8-5	L1
Nebraska	12	5-6	45.5%	2-4	3-2	1-3	4-3	2-2	3-6	—
Charlotte	12	5-6-1	45.5%	2-3-1	3-3	0-0-1	5-5	1-4	4-8	L2
Nevada	12	5-6-1	45.5%	2-4	3-2-1	0-1	4-5-1	1-3-1	4-7	L1
Colorado State	12	5-6-1	45.5%	2-3-1	3-3	1-3-1	4-3	3-1-1	6-6	L1
App State	14	6-8	42.9%	2-4	4-3	2-7	4-1	3-2	5-9	L2
Georgia	14	6-8	42.9%	3-4	1-3	6-8	—	3-2	8-5	W1
Troy	14	6-8	42.9%	4-3	2-4	6-6	0-2	2-3	3-10	L1
Alabama	14	6-8	42.9%	3-4	2-3	5-7	1-1	3-2	7-5	L1
UTEP	12	5-7	41.7%	2-4	3-3	0-3	5-4	3-2	5-7	L1
Florida International	12	5-7	41.7%	1-5	4-2	0-2	5-5	1-4	8-2	L4
Kent State	12	5-7	41.7%	2-3	3-4	1-0	4-7	2-3	4-6	W1
Central Michigan	12	5-7	41.7%	2-3	3-4	1-4	4-3	1-4	5-5	L3
Cincinnati	12	5-7	41.7%	2-5	3-2	1-3	4-3	2-3	7-5	L2
Florida Atlantic	12	5-7	41.7%	2-4	3-3	3-2	2-4	1-4	6-5	L4
Ohio	13	5-8	38.5%	2-4	2-4	3-6	2-2	2-3	2-9	W1
USC	13	5-8	38.5%	2-5	2-3	3-6	2-2	2-3	8-3	W1
Hawai'i	13	5-8	38.5%	3-4	2-4	0-3	5-5	3-2	7-6	W1
Northern Illinois	13	5-8	38.5%	1-5	3-3	2-6	3-2	2-3	3-9	W1
Western Kentucky	13	5-8	38.5%	2-4	3-3	5-4	0-4	2-3	6-5	L1
Penn State	13	5-8	38.5%	3-4	2-3	5-6	0-2	1-4	4-7-1	L4
Ball State	12	4-7-1	36.4%	3-2-1	1-5	1-1	3-6-1	3-1-1	4-6-1	—
Purdue	12	4-7-1	36.4%	3-4	1-3-1	1-2	2-5	2-3	3-7	L2
North Texas	12	4-7-1	36.4%	2-4	2-3-1	2-4	2-3-1	1-4	8-2	L2
Minnesota	13	4-8-1	33.3%	2-4-1	2-3	2-5-1	2-3	3-2	6-5	L1
Louisiana Tech	12	4-8	33.3%	2-4	2-4	3-3	1-5	1-4	4-5	L3
Arkansas	12	4-8	33.3%	2-5	2-2	2-4	2-4	2-3	6-5	L1
Buffalo	12	4-8	33.3%	2-4	2-4	1-3	3-5	2-3	5-6	L2
Mississippi State	12	4-8	33.3%	2-6	2-2	1-3	3-5	1-4	6-6	W1
UL Monroe	12	4-8	33.3%	2-4	2-4	1-1	3-7	1-4	4-6	L1
South Carolina	12	4-8	33.3%	3-4	1-3	3-3	1-5	2-3	6-6	L1
Fresno State	13	4-9	30.8%	2-4	1-5	3-7	1-2	2-3	4-7	W1
Wisconsin	13	4-9	30.8%	2-5	1-4	2-9	2-0	1-4	6-6	W1
Syracuse	13	4-9	30.8%	3-3	1-4	4-2	0-7	1-4	6-5-1	L1
North Carolina	13	4-9	30.8%	2-5	1-3	4-7	0-2	0-5	7-5	L8
UCLA	13	4-9	30.8%	1-5	3-3	3-7	1-2	1-4	4-7	L2
Navy	12	3-7-1	30%	2-3-1	1-3	1-4-1	2-3	2-2	3-6	—
Oklahoma State	14	4-10	28.6%	3-4	0-5	1-7	3-3	1-4	7-6	W1
Florida State	14	4-10	28.6%	2-4	1-4	3-8	0-2	1-4	7-5	L1
Marshall	13	3-8-2	27.3%	2-3-1	1-5	2-4	1-4-2	1-3-1	7-5	—
Massachusetts	12	3-9	25%	1-5	2-4	0-4	3-5	1-4	5-6	L3
Temple	12	3-9	25%	2-5	1-4	1-1	2-8	2-3	4-6	L1
Baylor	12	3-9	25%	1-7	2-2	0-4	3-5	1-4	5-5	L1
Illinois	12	3-9	25%	1-6	2-3	0-5	3-3	2-3	8-2	L1
TCU	12	2-9-1	18.2%	1-5-1	1-4	2-5-1	0-4	0-5	4-6	L5
Vanderbilt	12	1-11	8.3%	1-5	0-6	0-3	1-8	1-4	6-5	L4
Delaware	1	0-1	0%	—	0-1	—	0-1	0-1	1-0	L1

Starts and finishes

1st half vs 2nd half: margins, leads that held or slipped, and halves that split from the full game

Team	GP	At half	1H margin	2H margin	1H share	Led, lost	Trailed, won	1H cover only	Game cover only
Kennesaw State	1	1-0	+14.0	-17.0	100%	1	0	0	0
Missouri State	1	0-1	-7.0	-24.0	59%	0	0	0	0
Washington State	12	7-4-1	+7.8	-4.3	65%	2	0	2	0
Georgia State	13	9-4	+3.5	-6.3	60%	2	0	1	0
Texas State	13	9-3-1	+6.6	-2.8	60%	2	1	2	0
UAB	12	5-6-1	+1.1	-8.1	61%	2	1	2	1
SMU	14	12-2	+14.6	+6.3	61%	1	0	1	2
Tulane	14	9-4-1	+6.9	-1.0	61%	1	2	4	1
Washington	15	10-3-2	+9.3	+1.9	64%	0	2	1	0
Middle Tennessee	12	7-4-1	+1.7	-5.5	62%	3	0	2	0
Army	12	8-4	+3.1	-3.7	63%	2	0	2	0
UCF	13	6-4-3	+6.1	-0.5	56%	1	1	2	0
West Virginia	13	9-4	+5.8	-0.5	57%	1	1	3	1
Clemson	13	10-2-1	+7.5	+1.2	53%	2	1	1	0
Oregon	14	12-2	+17.0	+10.7	59%	0	0	0	2
Tennessee	13	9-4	+8.8	+2.7	59%	1	1	2	1
NC State	13	9-4	+5.7	-0.2	57%	1	1	2	1
Oklahoma	13	10-1-2	+11.9	+6.3	60%	2	0	1	1
Akron	12	4-6-2	-3.1	-8.7	54%	3	1	2	1
Wyoming	13	7-6	+4.2	-1.2	59%	1	3	0	1
Bowling Green	13	9-4	+3.7	-1.5	61%	2	0	2	2
Georgia Southern	13	7-5-1	+2.5	-2.8	56%	1	0	3	0
Western Kentucky	13	7-5-1	+3.5	-1.7	59%	2	2	3	3
Missouri	13	11-1-1	+8.4	+3.3	50%	1	1	2	1
Auburn	13	5-6-2	+4.2	-0.6	54%	0	1	2	0
Liberty	14	10-1-3	+9.3	+4.7	59%	0	0	4	2
Boise State	14	10-3-1	+5.6	+1.0	58%	4	1	2	0
San José State	13	7-4-2	+5.2	+1.0	53%	3	1	1	2
Rice	13	7-6	+2.8	-1.4	55%	1	0	1	2
Louisiana	13	6-4-3	+3.8	-0.3	49%	1	1	2	1
Texas	14	12-1-1	+10.4	+6.4	54%	0	0	1	2
Texas A&M	13	10-3	+7.6	+3.6	55%	3	0	3	1
Georgia Tech	13	5-7-1	+2.8	-1.2	51%	1	2	1	0
Cincinnati	12	3-9	-1.0	-4.9	54%	0	0	2	1
Miami	13	8-3-2	+6.2	+2.5	49%	3	1	3	0
USC	13	6-6-1	+5.5	+1.9	53%	0	2	1	0
Kent State	12	3-9	-8.3	-11.7	58%	2	0	1	0
Memphis	13	7-4-2	+7.0	+3.6	52%	1	2	2	1
Texas Tech	13	7-5-1	+2.4	-1.0	58%	1	0	0	0
East Carolina	12	4-6-2	-0.9	-4.2	67%	2	0	5	2
Ohio	13	7-5-1	+5.8	+2.6	47%	1	3	1	2
Colorado State	12	5-5-2	-0.2	-3.3	48%	2	2	3	2
Kansas	13	8-4-1	+5.7	+2.5	50%	2	2	1	1
BYU	12	6-5-1	-1.8	-4.9	61%	2	1	2	0
Louisville	14	8-5-1	+6.1	+3.3	51%	2	3	3	1
Nevada	12	3-8-1	-6.7	-9.4	51%	1	0	0	0
Toledo	14	8-5-1	+7.4	+4.6	52%	2	4	0	0
Eastern Michigan	13	5-6-2	-2.3	-4.8	58%	0	0	2	0
Pittsburgh	12	3-7-2	-2.3	-4.8	52%	1	1	3	1
South Florida	13	5-6-2	+1.1	-1.4	56%	0	2	2	1
Coastal Carolina	13	7-6	+3.2	+0.7	52%	0	1	0	2
Maryland	13	6-4-3	+4.8	+2.4	56%	0	1	2	2
Iowa	14	9-4-1	+1.5	-0.9	50%	1	1	2	1
Florida	12	6-5-1	+1.5	-0.7	53%	1	0	2	0
James Madison	13	11-2	+8.3	+6.3	48%	0	0	0	1
Northwestern	13	6-4-3	+0.8	-1.2	47%	0	1	2	2
Central Michigan	12	3-8-1	-3.0	-4.9	46%	0	1	2	0
Southern Miss	12	4-7-1	-5.3	-7.3	50%	2	0	3	0
Oregon State	13	8-4-1	+5.4	+3.5	51%	0	0	1	1
Rutgers	13	7-6	+1.9	+0.1	50%	1	1	1	3
Minnesota	13	5-7-1	-2.0	-3.8	53%	2	3	4	3
Virginia Tech	13	7-5-1	+3.6	+2.0	54%	0	0	0	2
Ohio State	13	10-2-1	+10.5	+8.8	51%	1	1	1	2
Charlotte	12	4-7-1	-4.8	-6.3	45%	2	1	1	2
Kansas State	13	9-4	+8.8	+7.3	56%	1	1	1	0
Virginia	12	3-7-2	-4.6	-5.9	44%	2	1	1	2
New Mexico State	15	7-4-4	+2.9	+1.7	53%	1	2	1	5
Georgia	14	10-2-2	+12.8	+11.7	54%	0	1	0	0
Michigan	15	15-0	+13.3	+12.2	53%	0	0	2	2
Western Michigan	12	5-7	-3.7	-4.4	54%	1	0	1	0
Old Dominion	13	6-5-2	-1.3	-2.0	47%	4	2	3	1
UConn	12	5-7	-5.1	-5.7	51%	2	0	2	0
San Diego State	12	5-5-2	-2.9	-3.3	49%	1	0	1	2
Houston	12	5-7	-3.8	-4.1	55%	1	0	1	0
UTEP	12	2-7-3	-4.2	-4.4	53%	1	1	2	3
Indiana	12	5-7	-3.8	-4.0	52%	2	0	2	2
Miami (OH)	14	11-3	+4.9	+4.8	53%	0	0	0	1
Duke	13	6-4-3	+4.0	+3.9	49%	1	1	1	1
Delaware	1	0-1	-28.0	-28.0	100%	0	0	0	0
North Carolina	13	8-4-1	+3.5	+3.7	51%	2	1	0	2
South Alabama	13	7-5-1	+5.9	+6.2	51%	1	0	1	0
Kentucky	13	6-6-1	+1.5	+1.8	49%	1	1	0	1
Temple	12	3-9	-7.5	-7.1	51%	1	1	1	1
UNLV	14	8-6	+2.7	+3.1	51%	1	2	0	1
Arizona State	12	6-6	-7.4	-6.7	55%	3	0	1	0
California	13	7-6	-1.7	-0.8	56%	2	1	1	0
Alabama	14	7-5-2	+7.0	+8.0	51%	0	3	1	4
Sacramento State	1	1-0	+3.0	+4.0	57%	0	0	0	0
Fresno State	13	7-5-1	+2.9	+4.1	49%	1	2	0	1
UL Monroe	12	1-10-1	-9.4	-8.2	52%	0	1	1	2
Ole Miss	13	10-2-1	+5.6	+6.9	48%	1	1	2	3
App State	14	7-5-2	+2.4	+3.8	45%	1	2	0	1
Utah	13	7-5-1	+1.2	+2.6	52%	1	1	0	0
South Carolina	12	6-6	-0.9	+0.6	54%	1	0	0	2
Air Force	13	7-5-1	+4.1	+5.6	55%	1	2	2	2
Nebraska	12	5-5-2	-0.9	+0.7	43%	1	0	0	0
Notre Dame	13	10-2-1	+10.8	+12.5	45%	0	0	0	2
LSU	13	7-5-1	+7.9	+9.6	50%	1	4	2	3
Tulsa	12	4-7-1	-6.1	-4.3	58%	1	1	2	2
Iowa State	13	6-6-1	+0.8	+2.6	51%	0	1	1	1
Illinois	12	3-8-1	-3.4	-1.5	52%	2	3	1	1
Arkansas	12	5-6-1	-1.7	+0.3	50%	2	0	1	2
UCLA	13	6-7	+2.8	+5.2	49%	0	2	0	2
Marshall	13	3-9-1	-4.3	-1.6	53%	1	3	1	2
New Mexico	12	4-8	-5.3	-2.5	53%	1	1	1	0
Arizona	13	7-5-1	+5.3	+8.2	46%	1	3	0	3
Sam Houston	12	3-8-1	-4.6	-1.6	48%	2	2	1	1
Michigan State	12	4-7-1	-7.8	-4.7	47%	1	0	1	1
Troy	14	9-5	+4.4	+8.1	45%	0	2	1	3
Colorado	12	4-8	-5.3	-1.4	45%	2	2	1	2
Buffalo	12	4-8	-5.3	-1.2	43%	2	1	1	2
Florida International	12	3-7-2	-8.0	-3.8	57%	1	1	1	1
Florida Atlantic	12	5-7	-3.0	+1.3	51%	1	0	2	0
Jacksonville State	13	5-6-2	+2.2	+6.8	47%	0	3	2	2
Northern Illinois	13	4-7-2	-0.3	+4.2	41%	0	2	0	1
UTSA	13	8-4-1	+1.6	+6.2	55%	0	0	1	1
Wake Forest	12	2-8-2	-6.1	-0.8	45%	0	1	2	0
Syracuse	13	4-9	-3.8	+2.0	49%	0	2	0	1
Mississippi State	12	5-7	-5.3	+0.6	47%	0	0	2	2
North Texas	12	4-7-1	-4.3	+1.8	49%	1	1	2	4
Purdue	12	3-8-1	-6.3	-0.2	41%	1	1	1	0
Ball State	12	3-7-2	-6.4	+0.3	42%	0	0	0	2
Penn State	13	9-3-1	+8.0	+14.8	44%	0	0	0	4
Vanderbilt	12	2-10	-10.2	-3.2	41%	0	0	0	1
Wisconsin	13	4-7-2	-1.9	+5.2	44%	1	2	1	3
TCU	12	6-6	-1.9	+5.4	47%	1	0	0	2
Utah State	13	3-7-3	-4.5	+2.9	46%	0	2	1	1
Arkansas State	13	6-7	-5.4	+2.1	46%	0	0	0	1
Baylor	12	3-9	-8.9	-1.3	43%	1	1	1	2
Boston College	13	5-8	-5.5	+2.1	43%	0	2	1	0
Navy	12	4-6-2	-6.3	+1.5	43%	0	0	0	1
Florida State	14	8-5-1	+3.7	+11.6	46%	0	4	0	4
Hawai'i	13	3-9-1	-9.4	-1.5	44%	0	1	1	0
Stanford	12	2-10	-12.7	-4.4	40%	1	2	2	1
Oklahoma State	14	5-9	-3.8	+4.8	45%	0	5	0	4
Massachusetts	12	3-8-1	-11.8	-2.8	39%	1	0	0	2
Louisiana Tech	12	3-8-1	-8.8	+1.3	45%	1	1	1	1

1st-half trend signals

Backtest 2016–26: each game graded with the teams’ records from earlier that season · break-even 52.4%

Signal	Rule	Record	Verdict
Hot 1st-half cover team	Covered 70%+ of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)	645-736 (46.7%)	No edge
Fade a cold 1st-half team	Opponent covered 30% or less of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)	628-656 (48.9%)	No edge
1st-half over teams	Both teams went over in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)	74-95 (43.8%)	No edge
1st-half under teams	Both teams went under in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)	169-135 (55.6%)	Not proven yet
Fast starter edge	Average 1st-half margins point past the 1st-half line	1311-1284 (50.5%)	No edge

These trends appear on the weekly Halftime table when a game qualifies. None has a proven edge yet, so they describe the data rather than pick bets.

NCAAF first-half team trends · 2023