Jacksonville State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Wed, Oct 30, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

4-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Liberty

5-1 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

LIB -2.5

✓ JXST W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 30–33 LIB

✗ LIB (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -1.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total59.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -1.5

4 → LIB

CloseLIB -2.5

4 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open59.5

▲ 4

Close63.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -1.5 · closed LIB -2.5 · moved 4 toward LIBmodel LIB -3.5

model LIB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -1.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total59.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 2.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 31–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 3.7; 66.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6	17–26	L	U58
Close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-3	17–20	L	U62
Close	BYU vs ECU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-3	24–27	L	U64
Close	UAB vs UL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-2	21–41	L	O59.5
Loose	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Loose	JMU vs GASO 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	41–13	W	U59.5
Loose	BYU vs UVA 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	66–49	W	O66.5
Loose	MIZ vs TENN 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–62	L	O66.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LWWWW	4-3	57%	1-2	0-1
LIB LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OUOOU	5-2	71%	4-3
LIB UUOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%
LIB	8-2 80%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 0–1 LIB LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 10 2023	Liberty 31 @ Jacksonville State 13	LIB -7	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−4.3▲ 0.2#87

LIB+3.4 →−3.9▼ 7.3#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JXST

Longer bar = better

LIB

#17

Offense

◀ JXST better

#33

#92

Defense

LIB better ▶

#32

+1.1 #12

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

+0.2 #59

67 plays #72

Pace

LIB faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #12	22.2 #51	JXST
Yards / play	7.00 #11	5.06 #37	JXST
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	−0.03 #10	Even
Success rate	47% #22	38% #30	Even

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #46	29.3 #100	LIB
Yards / play	6.31 #39	5.85 #93	LIB
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	+0.09 #64	LIB
Success rate	48% #17	46% #112	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.4 #34	11.6 #20	19.0 #22	11.3 #7	9.0 #24	20.3 #5
LIB allowed	6.7 #105	5.2 #28	11.8 #65	4.7 #45	5.7 #54	10.3 #40

LIB scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.5 #98	8.5 #62	13.0 #85	5.7 #77	11.7 #5	17.3 #21
JXST allowed	8.7 #125	9.4 #102	18.1 #119	3.3 #15	7.0 #86	10.3 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.