Middle Tennessee @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-6 · Power #129

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-7 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

UTEP -1.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 24–26 UTEP

✗ UTEP (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3

CloseUTEP -1.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTEP -3

1.5 → MTSU

CloseUTEP -1.5

1.5 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -3 · closed UTEP -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward MTSUmodel UTEP -7

model UTEP -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (105 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3

CloseUTEP -1.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 1.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MTSU won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.6; 51.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & total	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Close	TEM vs TLSA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	20–10	W	U51.5
Close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	30–38	L	O52
Close	LT vs MTSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-5	48–21	W	O47.5
Close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–19	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LWLLL	1-6	14%	1-3	1-5
UTEP LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; UTEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OUOUU	3-4	43%	2-6
UTEP UOOOU	3-4	43%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	3-7 30%	1-8 11%	4-5 44%
UTEP	1-9 10%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MTSU 1–0 UTEP MTSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	UTEP 30 @ Middle Tennessee 34	MTSU -8.5	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−19.2▼ 11.7#131

UTEP−11.5 →−17.5▼ 6.0#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MTSU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#116

Offense

Even

#127

#129

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#89

−0.6 #109

Turnovers

UTEP better ▶

−0.4 #94

63 plays #108

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	MTSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	16.9 #133	30.3 #106	UTEP
Yards / play	5.37 #102	5.84 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.12 #81	UTEP
Success rate	38% #114	42% #76	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #131	36.3 #125	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #125	6.85 #130	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #123	+0.33 #133	Even
Success rate	36% #127	49% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	6.0 #71	2.1 #134	8.1 #128	5.6 #78	3.1 #133	8.8 #121
UTEP allowed	6.9 #106	9.3 #101	16.1 #107	8.4 #119	5.4 #47	13.8 #94

UTEP scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	5.1 #85	3.4 #133	8.5 #125	4.6 #97	3.9 #131	8.5 #125
MTSU allowed	11.9 #133	7.6 #72	19.5 #128	11.1 #134	5.6 #54	16.8 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.