Tulane @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Thu, Oct 31, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

6-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

3-5 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

TULN -14.5

✓ TULN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 34–19 CLT

✓ TULN (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -16

CloseTULN -14.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -16

1.5 → CLT

CloseTULN -14.5

1.5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -16 · closed TULN -14.5 · moved 1.5 toward CLTmodel TULN -16

model TULN -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 52% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -16

CloseTULN -14.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 14.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 13.4; 64.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-17	42–7	W	U52
Very close	SMU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Very close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WWWLW	6-2	75%	3-1	5-1
CLT LWWLW	4-2	67%	1-0	4-2

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OUOUO	5-3	63%	6-2
CLT OUOOO	5-1	83%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+7.4▲ 6.1#34

CLT−9.5 →−10.4▼ 0.9#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TULN

Longer bar = better

CLT

#28

Offense

◀ TULN better

#107

#43

Defense

◀ TULN better

#116

+1.5 #3

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−0.8 #114

65 plays #85

Pace

Even

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #8	34.3 #120	TULN
Yards / play	6.55 #26	6.23 #117	TULN
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	+0.22 #118	TULN
Success rate	44% #60	44% #107	TULN

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	CLT off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #101	22.3 #54	TULN
Yards / play	5.41 #96	5.36 #55	TULN
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	0.00 #20	TULN
Success rate	38% #116	39% #42	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	9.0 #20	12.6 #6	21.6 #13	9.5 #17	9.4 #18	18.9 #9
CLT allowed	7.1 #111	10.8 #119	17.9 #119	8.5 #122	7.9 #101	16.4 #118

CLT scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	3.0 #120	6.8 #101	9.8 #114	4.3 #103	9.6 #14	13.9 #60
TULN allowed	3.3 #23	6.9 #58	10.1 #37	4.9 #50	7.3 #91	12.1 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.