Charlotte @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

3-4 · Power #119

final

Final

Memphis

6-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -16.5

✓ CLT W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 18–35 MEM

✓ MEM (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -20

CloseMEM -16.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -20

3.5 → CLT

CloseMEM -16.5

3.5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -20 · closed MEM -16.5 · moved 3.5 toward CLTmodel MEM -20

model MEM -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 43% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -20

CloseMEM -16.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 16.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 33–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 16.7; 48.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	17–13	L	U62
Very close	LIB vs FIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	31–24	L	U55.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	MEM vs TEM 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	24–3	W	U50
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	20–17	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT –LWWL	3-2	60%	2-2	3-2
MEM WLLWL	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT –OUOO	4-1	80%	3-4
MEM UOUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 275 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%
MEM	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLT 0–1 MEM MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Memphis 44 @ Charlotte 38	MEM -10	CLT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−9.5 →−11.8▼ 2.3#115

MEM+2.0 →+3.5▲ 1.5#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CLT

Longer bar = better

MEM

#111

Offense

MEM better ▶

#46

#119

Defense

MEM better ▶

#50

−0.7 #113

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+1.4 #6

65 plays #82

Pace

MEM faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	CLT off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #104	19.9 #32	MEM
Yards / play	5.37 #101	5.60 #81	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #122	+0.05 #44	MEM
Success rate	37% #116	39% #41	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #29	34.4 #121	MEM
Yards / play	6.10 #52	6.40 #121	MEM
PPA / play	+0.23 #30	+0.23 #120	MEM
Success rate	43% #74	45% #113	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.4 #124	7.7 #83	10.1 #108	4.9 #92	8.0 #43	12.9 #76
MEM allowed	4.0 #47	5.3 #33	9.3 #32	4.3 #36	6.3 #72	10.6 #39

MEM scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	8.4 #23	11.3 #23	19.7 #20	7.1 #52	7.3 #61	14.4 #54
CLT allowed	8.1 #121	11.3 #125	19.4 #126	7.7 #110	7.3 #92	15.0 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.