North Texas @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Texas

5-1 · Power #94

final

Final

Memphis

5-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -10.5

✓ UNT W

Total

67.5

▲ Over · 96 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 28–38 MEM

✓ MEM (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -11.5

CloseMEM -10.5

Total66.5 → 67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -11.5

1 → UNT

CloseMEM -10.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open66.5

▲ 1

Close67.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -11.5 · closed MEM -10.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel MEM -11

model MEM -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 38% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -11.5

CloseMEM -10.5

Total66.5 → 67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 10.5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 52–44; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 96 points went over 67.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 10.5; 63.9 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	34–30	L	U69.75
Very close	UVA vs DUKE 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	48–0	W	U69.5
Very close	PITT vs UVA 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-13	48–38	L	O67.5
Very close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	48–27	W	O70
Close	OKST vs TTU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	41–31	L	O65.5
Close	USC vs ORST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	27–45	L	O62.75
Close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	13–40	L	U70
Close	CIN vs SMU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9.75	48–14	W	U65.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	31–27	L	U73

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT L–WWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0
MEM WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT U–OOO	4-1	80%	5-1
MEM UUOUU	1-5	17%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 63.5–71.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	7-3 70%	5-3-1 63%	5-4 56%
MEM	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 0–1 MEM MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Memphis 45 @ North Texas 42	MEM -6.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.3 →−3.3▲ 3.0#82

MEM+2.0 →+4.3▲ 2.3#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNT

Longer bar = better

MEM

#31

Offense

◀ UNT better

#60

#94

Defense

MEM better ▶

#37

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+1.3 #9

71 plays #27

Pace

Even

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #15	15.8 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.19 #12	5.28 #58	UNT
PPA / play	+0.24 #31	+0.01 #29	Even
Success rate	44% #66	39% #49	Even

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #48	33.0 #119	MEM
Yards / play	5.87 #68	5.79 #92	MEM
PPA / play	+0.20 #44	+0.15 #95	MEM
Success rate	42% #81	41% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.2 #27	10.2 #39	18.3 #30	14.5 #2	8.0 #42	22.5 #3
MEM allowed	1.2 #4	5.7 #42	6.8 #9	3.8 #26	5.2 #47	9.0 #23

MEM scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.5 #35	10.8 #32	18.3 #30	7.2 #53	5.7 #97	12.8 #76
UNT allowed	6.7 #103	15.8 #133	22.5 #131	4.0 #31	6.5 #77	10.5 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.