North Texas @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Texas

4-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

2-3 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

UNT -5.5

✓ FAU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 32–27 FAU

✓ UNT (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -7

CloseUNT -5.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -7

1.5 → FAU

CloseUNT -5.5

1.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -7 · closed UNT -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward FAUmodel UNT -3.5

model UNT -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 49% (61 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -7

CloseUNT -5.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 5.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 41–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 5.6; 52.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TXST @ USM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	50–36	W	O60.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	3–19	L	U55.5
Close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	40–9	W	U52.5
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-3	17–0	W	U53.5
Close	WKU @ JXST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	17–20	L	U60.5
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	21–28	L	U56
Close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WL–WW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
FAU WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OU–OO	3-1	75%	4-1
FAU UUOOU	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 204 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	6-4 60%	6-2-1 75%	5-4 56%
FAU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.3 →−3.2▲ 3.1#81

FAU−6.9 →−9.1▼ 2.2#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNT

Longer bar = better

FAU

#30

Offense

◀ UNT better

#102

#80

Defense

FAU better ▶

#57

−0.6 #107

Turnovers

FAU better ▶

+0.6 #38

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ UNT faster

63 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #15	23.6 #67	UNT
Yards / play	7.27 #14	5.54 #75	UNT
PPA / play	+0.27 #24	−0.04 #17	Even
Success rate	44% #66	41% #70	Even

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	FAU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #111	32.2 #115	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #100	5.55 #76	UNT
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.10 #75	UNT
Success rate	40% #101	39% #53	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.0 #53	11.6 #22	18.6 #34	15.4 #2	6.8 #72	22.2 #4
FAU allowed	5.2 #77	7.6 #72	12.8 #79	4.0 #36	6.8 #78	10.8 #49

FAU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	3.4 #115	6.8 #96	10.2 #109	7.6 #47	4.2 #121	11.8 #95
UNT allowed	6.6 #94	15.0 #131	21.6 #129	3.4 #25	7.2 #93	10.6 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.