UNLV @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Fri, Oct 11, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

UNLV

4-1 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

1-4 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

UNLV -18.5

✓ USU W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 40–22 USU

✓ UNLV (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -18

CloseUNLV -18.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -18

0.5 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -18.5

0.5 pts toward UNLV

Total

Open64.5

▲ 2

Close66.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -18 · closed UNLV -18.5 · moved 0.5 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -18

model UNLV -18

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -18

CloseUNLV -18.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as an 18.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 50–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 19.6; 69.9 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	54–29	W	O64.25
Close	LIB @ UNT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	35–26	L	P61
Close	APP @ ARST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	48–14	W	U68
Close	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Close	UL @ ARST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	28–27	L	U70
Close	LOU @ DUKE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-20	62–22	W	O60.5
Close	CCU @ ARST 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-20	52–20	W	U74.5
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	MIA @ DUKE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-20.5	47–10	W	U67
Loose	WKU @ RICE 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & rest	-19	42–21	W	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV –WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
USU –LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV –OUOO	3-1	75%	4-1
USU –UOOO	3-1	75%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 35 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
USU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-2-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+6.6▲ 8.6#37

USU−6.9 →−14.0▼ 7.1#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNLV

Longer bar = better

USU

#32

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#81

#27

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#130

+1.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.8 #111

63 plays #106

Pace

USU faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	44.4 #9	41.4 #132	UNLV
Yards / play	6.61 #31	6.57 #126	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.25 #31	+0.35 #133	UNLV
Success rate	45% #57	51% #130	UNLV

When USU has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	USU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #107	19.8 #39	UNLV
Yards / play	6.47 #37	4.90 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	−0.05 #13	UNLV
Success rate	40% #97	36% #28	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	10.4 #14	12.2 #20	22.6 #13	8.0 #40	13.2 #5	21.2 #7
USU allowed	5.4 #77	19.4 #134	24.8 #132	6.2 #81	10.4 #124	16.6 #118

USU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.4 #112	9.0 #57	12.4 #94	4.8 #94	6.0 #86	10.8 #107
UNLV allowed	5.6 #84	2.6 #10	8.2 #28	5.6 #74	4.8 #47	10.4 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.