Oregon State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Nevada

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

4-1 · Power #98

final

Final

Nevada

2-4 · Power #102

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -2.5

✓ NEV W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 27–24 NEV

✗ ORST (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -3.5

CloseORST -2.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -3.5

1 → NEV

CloseORST -2.5

1 pt toward Nevada

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -3.5 · closed ORST -2.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel ORST -4.5

model ORST -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 43% (96 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -3.5

CloseORST -2.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 2.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NEV won 42–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.3 against an average line of 3.7; 46.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	ISU @ OHIO 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	7–10	L	U41.75
Very close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–49	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LW–WL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2
NEV WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UU–OO	2-2	50%	4-1
NEV OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 219 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
NEV	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+7.8 →+0.1▼ 7.7#69

NEV−15.0 →−8.5▲ 6.5#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ORST

Longer bar = better

NEV

#56

Offense

Even

#68

#92

Defense

Even

#99

+0.6 #41

Turnovers

◀ ORST better

−0.5 #100

73 plays #11

Pace

◀ ORST faster

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #67	25.5 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #82	5.93 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.21 #111	ORST
Success rate	48% #25	43% #99	ORST

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: NEV offense

	NEV off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #98	23.2 #64	ORST
Yards / play	5.90 #68	6.29 #117	NEV
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.13 #90	NEV
Success rate	45% #60	43% #97	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	5.6 #81	8.2 #74	13.8 #74	4.2 #107	9.0 #34	13.2 #74
NEV allowed	4.5 #52	9.7 #99	14.2 #92	3.8 #30	7.5 #96	11.3 #53

NEV scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #53	6.2 #102	13.2 #84	7.7 #43	4.0 #124	11.7 #96
ORST allowed	4.6 #57	5.0 #31	9.6 #39	3.2 #19	9.0 #118	12.2 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.